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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7394)11/21/1997 12:53:00 PM
From: ted free  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9285
 
Pancho- I have been looking at BFIT for about a week . I agree with all you say however I'm not sure it will go down that fast. I'm not versed at reading SEC forms so if any of my observations are incorrect I would appreciate feedback from anyone.

The recent $200 mil in note has no principal due until 2003.

I am a member of one of there clubs and they need to do a lot of
upgrades as they state. I haven't seen much happen over the last 2 years in the clubs I go to in the way of upgrades. The supposed upgrades can hide a lot of expenses making financials look better than they are buy providing excuses.

Lifetime fitness has put in a new club close to me and it is really a
super place. The dues are a lot higher but they attract a better class
of people that don't care in many cases how much it costs. Talking to friends in my area most are joining to Lifetime Fitness.

The following is from form 454(b)
{ After the Offering, 19,521,116 shares of Common Stock will be outstanding(assuming the Underwriters' over-allotment option is not exercised). At that time, the Company will also have (i) outstanding options to purchase 1,255,978 shares of Common Stock with a weighted-average exercise price of $4.25 per share, and (ii) the ability to grant options to purchase an additional 268,067
shares of Common Stock under the Company's stock option plans. In addition, the Company will have outstanding warrants to purchase 2,942,805 shares of Common Stock at an exercise price of $5.26 per share. The warrants are held by the Chairman of the Board and the President of the Company and are exercisable until December 31, 2005. Further, the Company has issued warrants to purchase 250,000
shares of Common Stock to an affiliate of one of the Underwriters in connection with a loan to the Company. See "Underwriting". The effect, if any, on the market price of the Common Stock prevailing from time to time as a result of the additional shares of Common Stock that would be outstanding upon the exercise of stock options and warrants is unpredictable, and no assurance can be given that the effect will not be adverse.}

Looks like further dilution down the road if they need to raise more
cash. Why did they have a stock offering and notes, why not finance it
all with stock? It seems to good a short to be true?

They have low funds sponsorship and float seems ok. I feel confident
enough to short but am concerned that I am missing something.
At present short GTW and YHOO.

Regards, Ted Free



To: Pancho Villa who wrote (7394)11/21/1997 10:36:00 PM
From: scope  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 9285
 
Pancho: Place in your watch list SWY. it is way overvalued. Paid too much for VONS. Here in Southern California there is a supermaket in every corner. Once the consolidation is over, this group will suffer.
I don't know about North West supermaket activity, but I can see some VONS parking lots here look like evacuated areas. ABS,already,is backing up my suspicions.