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Technology Stocks : TLAB info? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Carragher who wrote (1683)	11/21/1997 10:44:00 AM
From: Dave Dickerson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7342

John- To all- "First Call" as of 11/19/97 has Tellab's earnings estimate report as follows- 24 brokers have Tellabs rated a average of 1.4,with a range of 1 to 3,on a scale of 1=buy,2=buy/hold,3=hold,4=sell/hold and 5=sell. Mean estimate of net earnings per share for FY 1997 is $1.33 with a range of $1.28 to $1.36 per share, this gives an implied P/E ratio of 39, with these 24 brokers, with last confirmation on 11/18/97. Mean estimate of 24 (knowledgeable,that's how I would rate them, based of their in-depth questions on last conference call that I reported on in this string) brokers for 4th 1/4 1997 net earnings /share is $.41,with a range of $.39 to $.43/share. These same 24 technical analytical brokers have a mean estimate of FY 1998 net earnings of $1.71/per share for Tellab's. This implies a growth rate over 4th 1/4 1996 of 28%.Too low IMHO. Brokers revising their estimates in the last 30 days were=4 with no downward revisions. Brokers revising their estimates upwards in the last 60 days were 35 with 3 brokers revising downwards in same time span. Brokers revising their estimates upwards in the last 90 days were 32 with 3 revising downwards. If you are a believer of P/E ratios or PEG values, then as net earnings grow, the price of stocks will also grow , within the ranges of historical P/E ratios and taking into account beta and world affairs. Warren Buffett became the second richest man in the world, partly because he selected companies that would grow their net earnings per share by at least his goal of 18% per year with a good mgt. team. Once he has made that kind of a long term hold selection, he doesn't even have a stock price ticker machine in his Omaha,Ne. (HOME OF THE WORLD FAMOUS CORNHUSKER FOOTBALL TEAM) office. MY WIFE GAVE ME AN INTERESTING THOUGHT,NAMELY THAT CHIP IS ACTUALLY A BULL ON TELLABS AND HE JUST BAITS US ON THE STRING SO THAT WE DO ALL OF HIS HOMEWORK FOR HIM IN DEFENSE OF OUR BULLISH POSITIONS?? DAVE DICKERSON