Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (85464)	1/1/2012 10:57:51 PM
From: bart13	1 Recommendation Respond to of 217941

Well, one of the things about statistics is that they are not reality. I know they are what we have but nevertheless it is true. True enough that stats are not reality, although they are a valid simulacrum, help keep me off the streets and can also be quite amusing and sometimes quite surprising. The fun is also in discovering heretofore unknown relationships or unintended consequences etc. - and actually successfully forecasting portions of the future possible or probable reality, such as are painted by simple truths like inflation is more money than goods. I used to study the history of the Great Depression and earlier depressions, and was astonished at how sparse the collections were, when you peel back commentary and keep peeling back commentary upon commentary trying to get to bedrock. Indeed, quite true and I stand on the shoulders of many like Friedman & Schwartz who did pore through the available records and did their best with what they had. I also listened to the reality my grandparents knew from whale oil lamps to the moon landing... and the reality that my father knew as his path took him through the Wiemar hyperinflation, the move to the US in 1929 and his subsequent experiences in the Great Depression. They and others help frame my data slut games with Excel. I actually gave up because it was all guesswork, and guessing wasn't good enough for me. I continue since I get a kick out of it, it's the best we have... and life itself as it progresses is not all that different from a best guess path based on the best data and conclusions one can find and build. The primary test of stats is whether they allow one to more accurately hypothesize. One hypothesizes, takes an action, sees the results, and learns along the way... and enjoys the fruits and smells the roses... or not. So far, so good... TANSTAAFL too...