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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nixpix who wrote (85507)	1/2/2012 5:17:52 PM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217847

my time line for definitive global crisis, borne of the must-be dollar crisis, was between 7-15 years, and is now between 6-14 years as the calendar page flips inexorably (i) as far as i am concerned there is no particular reason why rmb:usd exchange rate cannot revert to its pre-1984 level of around 2.8 within the next 6-14 years (from the current rate of 6.3) even though rmb can drop against the usd in the interim, and so i slopped in 10% per annum shadow appreciation of rmb vs usd, though i note that the actual substantive appreciation may do large-step function on top of the drip drip drip of 3-4% per annum sort (ii) i see no reason why the rmb economy cannot grow at annual compounded 8% with inflation @ 5% (wage-cost spiral offset by efficiencies and whatever) (iii) i am okay to use an optimistic 2.5% gdp growth rate for team usa, but (iv) ... would layer in the same 5% inflation rate given that the size of continental china compels global inflation to be 5% and america is after all just a part of the world, and (v) that the scale of usd reserve dominance along with the needed printing during declining years until past best-use-by date dictates that global inflation rate be at least 5%. economist.com - if my guess is anywhere near spot-on, true rmb:usd gdp parity could well happen during 2016, and - nominal gdp parity can happen at anytime between 2016 to 2026; the later nominal parity achieved the more dramatic for all concerned - benchmark being the fall of ussr. - the overall implication being that china economy can reach 3x usa economy around 2030 i see no particular reason why china economy cannot revert to its natural mean of 30-35% of global gdp per history actual achieved. the main watch n brief issue being whether a hodge-podge melted pot of everyone-for-himself make-belief 4-years-cycle last-quarter-reporting consumption-is-wealth war-is-peace universal-suffrage pop culture machinated by unlearned hereditary elite having succeeded much more because of circumstances per accident of history can be bested by homogeneous savings-is-capital-is-also-wealth longterm-planning for-the-greater-good meritocracy of may-the-most-able-and-tested-lead civilization state. teotwawki should be dramatic, and the time line indicated per broad-brush macro sounds about right given the inevitable thrashing accompanying the dying anguish of empires and invariable wobbles amidst the birthing cries of kingdoms. let us watch n brief as we had over the past decade ... so far the macro watch n brief velocity per record of these threads seems well-calibrated, and trajectories good-enough aligned. p.s. back in 1986 when the economist predicted one of the earlier versions of the 'coming collapse of china', i wrote the magazine a note, predicting that britain shall collapse first. i am also watching the progress towards that marker.