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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mad Bomber who wrote (821)	11/23/1997 9:25:00 PM
From: savolainen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1998

TI etc Greetings MB Some thoughts on a relatively quiet weekend... >>TI has consistently stated that they are on track with c6x. However, MOT did not tell the truth until the last minute so I suppose TI could be doing the same but I doubt it.<< Agree... (tho TI might have slipped a little)... Finally got around to listening to the westell conference call. When cornered, seamans put c6x availability (both samples and volume shipment) in the first half of 98 as opposed to first quarter. Am expecting samples first quarter and volume in the summer. He wouldn't have been this specific if ti wasn't on top of things. Checked some previous press and except for the first in feb of this year, TI seems to have been consistent about this timeframe (roughly). Also apparently there has been an advanced-release chip available most of this year. >>I think TI getting their chip out would be a good thing... Orckit should be able to co-exist and get slice of the pie.<< Agree here, as i'm up to my elbows in coms via usrx.... <g> Actually, after the first announcements (feb), was a c6x true believer. The chip sounded great, and software upgradeability seemed like a can't lose strategy. Was therefore more than a little concerned about how orctf was going to be able to compete when they announced their next generation silicon plans (aug) . Now am more agnostic about the c6x. It has its own issues. Tons of potential, but it's also very complex, ambitious, and to date untested either in the lab or the field. Spent some time trying to make sense of dsp cores vs dsp chips, etc. and have come to the the conclusion that orctf/fujitsu will probably be at least competitive near term and that's probably enough, as you said it could well be a giant market. On the + side for the orctf/fujitsu chip: it is single chip recasting of an existing multigenerational tested, trialed and tuned chipset, orctf has a reputation for engineering excellence, orctf has a good track record getting successful silicon out (nine successful chipsets), and last but not least, fujitsu has deep pockets and a strategic agenda. All this being said, orctf/fujitsu is the darkhorse for next generation adsl silicon and there probably are many good and sensible reasons for the longer odds. >>In my opinion, ORCTF has good upside because they are making profit now and new business in a growing market can only add to the bottom line.<< Yes, but Orckit is now in that awkward stage in between being a story stock and a real business. Compared to co's without positive earnings, they look great, but compared to established viable ventures, they have a ways to go. Cash is not a problem. orctf has something close to $30 million cash. Risk over the next year seems to be the rate at which their business will grow vs growing expectations. Last quarter was the first in the black by .01 eps. '98 eps is already being projected at .40. This means revenues are going to have to grow by something like 65% from projected 97. Although hdsl is doing well, they probably won't make .40 without adsl and/or vdsl revenues and that means either deployment or some serious trial $. ---- One of the current missing pieces of thread info is the identity of the "major n american carrier" who recently started trialing fujitsu adsl equipment (orctf codeveloped). Seems like you might have some sources. Please post if you come across anything in your travels. Would think that the "hook" for a carrier would be the very tight integration at CO switch of adsl/sonet, and therefore those carriers with fujitsu sonet equipment would be prime candidates. (fujitsu has somewhere between 30-60% of the sonet transmission market in US) Also keep an eye out for anyone interested in nexion edge switches (Acton, MA). Fujitsu picked them up earlier this year (for $130 million) to round out their atm switch line (sounds like cool stuff). The nexion 8000 switches won't ship til 98, but they are currently being trialed (no news where). Descriptions: "leaps ahead of the offerings of other manufacturers" and "provides three to five times the efficiency of the products of current competitors"... etc. My first thought was gte, as they have ongoing adsl trials, an installed base of fujitsu equipment (sonet) and a reseller agreement with fujitsu. Also last May, Barry Nalls, GTE's assistant vice president of business product management, noted that ".. new trial partners and equipment vendors will be added (to the trials) over the next few months"...( beyond amtx and wstl). From recent news tho, seems gte is probably going with wstl(amtx) 100% (and maybe not looking at alternatives). Many candidates out there.. best wishes s