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Strategies & Market Trends : Ride the Tiger with CD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (208890)	1/3/2012 5:57:06 PM
From: stuffbug	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313017

Today's Action ? I like it. If every day in January is like today, my portfolio should double by the end of the month. ........LOL On a more serious note, here is a brief analysis. 1. During October and November, some very good analysts (don't remember their names) were saying that the 2011 seasonal patterns for precious metals were running about a month ahead of the normal patterns. So, I just compared the HUI Index of late 2011 to that of late 2010. 2. In 2010, the HUI topped out on December 6th. It then declined 17.8% (about 7 ATRs - average true range) over 34 trading days. 3. Over the subsequent 29 trading days, the HUI recovered almost 90 points (about 7 ATRs). During the decline, the 40 day moving average of the ATR dropped from about 15 to about 12.4. As a percentage of price, the ATR remained in the 2.5% range. 4. In 2011, the HUI peaked on November 8th. Over the next 35 trading days, it declined 22.2% (about 6.2 ATRs) from peak to trough. As a percentage of price, the ATR has been fairly constant at a little over 3.6% during the last month and a half. 5. The current move out of the hole is significantly more powerful than the initial thrust from last year. It has taken just three days to move the equivalent amount as the first five days in 2011. Probably somewhat due to the recovery from tax loss selling. Today's action has turned my trend indicator from DOWN to UP on the daily chart. Takeaways - The significant increase in the average true range from 2010 to 2011 (2.5% to 3.6%) confirms the conventional commentary that volatility has increased. As traders / investors, we need to be aware of this and modify our techniques to make this work to our advantage. For example, as volatility increases, stops must be widened. Otherwise, you will be stopped out by the normal market noise. The banksters will love you, but your spouse might not. - My model is indicating a move to the 580 - 585 area for the HUI. My model doesn't project target dates. but my best guess would be late January to early February.

To: Canuck Dave who wrote (208890)	1/3/2012 11:03:35 PM
From: CashWhore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 313017

interest rates at zero plus election year for the master puppet president who i dont think has a chance in hell of losing by design, lets just say i wouldn't be comfortable being short think markets are definitely going higher as the us leads the way, at least until facebook is ipo'd, plan on being a pig til then