Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Dierks who wrote (48887)	1/4/2012 11:42:22 AM
From: TimF	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71588

In part the crisis was caused by the elimination of the barriers between the two different types of banks. Why do you think that? How did that happen? --------------- The argument is that this was a bad idea because Glass-Steagall wisely prevented commercial banks from mad speculation. This is what you might call "Folk Economics"--wrapped in the lurid lore of the New Deal and very superficially appealling, it is close to an axiom of faith for many on the left. Sadly, it is simply wrong, as Alex Tabarrok ably explains: Given a history like this people wonder how repealing the law could have been a good thing. But a significant academic literature has investigated these claims and rejected them. Eugene White, for example, found that national banks with security affiliates were much less likely to fail than banks without affiliates. Randall Kroszner (now at the Fed.) and Raghuram Rajan found that (jstor) securities issued by unified banks were (ex-post) of higher quality that those issued by investment banks. A powerful book by George Benston went through the entire Pecora hearings which supposedly revealed the problems with unified banking and found them to be a complete sham. My colleague, Carlos Ramirez later showed that the separation of commercial and investment banking increased the cost of external finance (jstor). Finally, my own work (pdf) unearthed the real reasons for the separation in a titanic battle between the Morgans and Rockefellers. Yet this meme keeps coming back and back, in my comments and elsewhere. Paul Krugman and Daniel Gross are too chicken to outright claim that the "repeal" caused this mess, but they sure do strenuously imply it. They can't say it more directly because it's moronic. Even if you ignore the economic history indicating that Glass-Steagall didn't help the crisis it was meant to solve--even if you assume, arguendo, that the repeal was a bad idea--there's simply no logical reason to believe it had anything to do with the current mess. Securitization was not introduced in the 1990s; it was invented in the 1970s and became popular in the 1980s, as chronicled in Liar's Poker. (As an aside, if you haven't read it, you really must. Especially now). GLB had nothing to do with either lending standards at commercial banks, or leverage ratios at broker-dealers, the two most plausible candidates for regulatory failure here. Most importantly, commercial banks are not the main problems. If Glass-Steagall's repeal had meaningfully contributed to this crisis, we should see the failures concentrated among megabanks where speculation put deposits at risk. Instead we see the exact opposite: the failures are among either commercial banks with no significant investment arm (Washington Mutual, Countrywide), or standalone investment banks. It is the diversified financial institutions that are riding to the rescue. theatlantic.com Then we pass into la-la-land, where we try to figure out which of the provisions of Gramm-Leach-Bliley created any of the major contributing factors to the current crisis: Steadily rising prices in the housing market A flood of foreign capital flowing into US debt markets A conviction among ordinary Americans that housing purchases were an easy, and possibly even quick, way to get rich A 20 year government committment to ever-expanding homeownership A global shift towards increasingly exotic financial instruments for pricing and distributing risk Resistance in the Democratic controlled Senate to the Bush administration's 2003 attempt to put some teeth in OFHEO (which regulated Fannie and Freddie) Lunatic bankers who confused beta with alpha. theatlantic.com