To: Dennis Roth who wrote (161973 ) 1/5/2012 5:28:32 AM From: Dennis Roth 4 Recommendations Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206272 Energy in 2012 Transitions 209 pages, 236 exhibits Download Link: sendspace.com First page:An Uncertain World: As we head into 2012, much uncertainty remains within the global macro environment. Although our macro indicators signal continued sluggishness early in 2012, we remain positive on 2013-2014 Brent Oil prices—supply remains a significant constraint and secular trends in non-OECD demand are supportive. Entering 2012, we find Energy fairly valued versus other market sectors. Within Energy, we lower our weighting on the Integrated Oils to Market Weight. We believe there will be a rotation into Oilfield Services and select liquid-rich E&Ps. Transitions to Watch in 2012: With technology change and political/ regulatory volatility, there are a lot of transitions to watch. We believe there will be greater M&A activity from the Majors and from Asia, with a focus on shales and exploration hotspots. Within US E&P, we focus on successful liquid transition stories. The Eagleford, Mississippian, core Niobrara, and liquids-rich Marcellus top the 2012 returns leaderboard. US Oilfield Services suffered from execution issues in 2011, leaving the shares looking undervalued. Strong demand for services and better execution in 2012 offer upside potential. Internationally, we are cautious on Russian Energy, positive on YPF, and believe Asia’s upstream companies will outperform local peers. On the political front, several transitions in key oil suppliers make us nervous.Some Transitions That Look Farther Off: We devote a considerable part of this report to analyses of US gas markets. We lower the outlook for demand from the power sector, offering a detailed analysis of energy efficiency. On the supply side, we highlight drilling efficiency gains as a cap on US gas prices, even when power and LNG export demand eventually inflects higher.