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Strategies & Market Trends : Dividend investing for retirement -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E_K_S who wrote (10709)	1/6/2012 4:56:36 PM
From: JimisJim	3 Recommendations Respond to of 34328

SDRL is in a growth sub sector of the oil services sector, IMO... and pays a nice divvy... it is a bit more speculative in that it hasn't got decades of history behind it, but I wouldn't count on the share price dropping significantly just to trade out and back in... it might, but it may also go up from here -- 52 week high is almost 12% higher than current price and 52 week low is 30% lower, so it is not cheap, nor is it expensive IMO... the main thing is that even if the price dips, your divvy will capture the lower prices going forward as a sort of dollar cost averaging... if you want to trade stocks based on share price, I suggest getting to know a lot more about the high-spec ultradeepwater drilling platform demand and supply and then compare SDRL vs. RIG, DO, maybe ESV... there aren't a lot of players in this area and demand looks to be steady and perhaps growing. Do your own DD, but know that after 30 years in the offshore oil industry, I trade OSX stocks a lot less frequently and bought SDRL last year as a long term hold and addition to my divvy PF... OSX stocks can be quite volatile, but do not necessarily trade based on the current price of oil -- companies like SDRL depend on very long lead-time projects that cost billions and the decisions to buy SDRL rigs are driven by the long view, not the short-term wiggles in the price of oil... they can't (and won't) accept orders and let them be cancelled without huge penalties... they get substantial money up front along with progress payments and these rigs take a long time to build, more time to commission and more time to actually begin operations. Just some thoughts I wanted to share as I don't see SDRL as a trading vehicle... I would look more toward trades in RIG or HAL as they are trading very cheaply unless/until they settle with BP over Macondo and from what I hear via the grapevine, there are very serious negotiations for them to settle, leaving BP as the lone defendant in all future litigation over the deaths and financial hits as a result of Deepwater Horizon (a rig I worked on two different times for two different companies who are not involved in any liability from the accident). Best, Jim

To: E_K_S who wrote (10709)	1/7/2012 7:09:31 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Respond to of 34328

One thing is for sure EKS, I suck at investing in actual E & P co.'s, been tempted lately but reminding myself of past missteps ( Harken energy comes to mine <lol>). I don't know enough to value them, more picks and shovels as my name implies<g>. I'll continue to hold SDRL and reinvest, it's grown on me over the past year 'n a half. When I first bought it, someone whom I respect on another board pm'd me saying he believed someday it would be worth 50(it was under 25 at the time)-bold prediction, but I agree. Might take awhile, but damn it pays well while you wait-and divys have continued to grow. My opinion is management hit the sweet spot with it's timing and cost on leveraging up newbuilds on the coat heals of JF's clout. As Jim mentioned, the lead time is long, so we've yet to reap all the benefits. If I did have a concern it would be related to the losses on those interest rate swap thingys, but I do understand the value of protection. Besides, what is cooler than one of those high spec rigs? It boggles my mind..ditch

To: E_K_S who wrote (10709)	1/7/2012 9:48:19 AM
From: Ditchdigger	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34328

PS EKS, besides don't you want to see what happens if SDRL does push through all this resistance? Stock has consolidated for almost a full years time after that "long tail up" sell signal (what a move up from 16 though). If it was a no growth company I would sell here, but it isn't. I think I'm a bit more positive on the overall market(except for maybe the ute's) than you so I'm sure that plays into my opinion as well. We shall see how it plays out and hope for an intraday print of 36 all the best Enjoy the weekend. (there is quite an established channel between 31 and 34.99, I'll give you that though..:)