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Gold/Mining/Energy : Shale Natural Gas, Oil and NGLs and ESA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jrhana who wrote (5665)	1/12/2012 5:19:33 PM
From: jrhana	Respond to of 6160

And I would like to make it clear that here a variety of opinion and analysis both fundamental and technical in nature is very welcome here. Also the posting of relevant and cogent articles is enormously helpful really the posts here have been of the highest quality Please keep them coming. And no censorship here. all are welcome. even the occasional off topic would be great

To: jrhana who wrote (5665)	1/13/2012 11:11:05 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6160

You may be right that a combination provides a better chance for success. For me though, I neither do technical analysis (studying chart trends) nor in my view do I perform detailed fundamental analysis. To me, detailed fundamental analysis would be looking closely at a company's management, studying it's 10k's and annual and quarterly reports, perhaps researching the company's suppliers and customers. I don't do much of any of that. I mostly just look at the basic stuff -- roe, p/bk, p/e, p/sales, d/e, sales growth, profit margins, maybe insider buying. -------- I looked again at how I would value ESA. Too tough for me. Too short company history, and an erratic earnings history. As I view it, the company's organized itself to try to capture shale business. Shale oil/gas maybe still being in its early stages. As other service companies report earnings, ESA reports losses. Perhaps as ESA says: due to rains and contract delays. Backlog of business seems good. My point though is that other service businesses in the sector are reporting good profits on the boom in business they are seeing, so ESA should too in my view. Regardless. Stock is now $3.18. For a swag, maybe when the sales backlog is being worked, the company can earn 15% on its book value of $3.80. Which is $.57, to which I'd assign a multiple of 7-8. So maybe fair value might be $4-$4.50. (just my view, of course) I've no idea though what the probability is that ESA could actually earn .57. Or earn anything. Their history of delivering earnings performance is just not good.