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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: HH who wrote (3483)11/21/1997 1:41:00 PM
From: Velocipher.   Respond to of 95453
 
Low institutional ownership is probably more of a response to the difficulty of a small float. The last couple of days have provided the type of liquidity they would need to take position, so they may own more than 4% now. This number will continue to grow with time and performance. I've heard alot of people worried about the valuation of FGII. FGII is one of the most well respected companies in this business, mainly from their engineering division. They have designed a large percentage of the rigs out there today. They also have a Caspian Sea design which could yield some great returns for them soon. The Caspian is and is going to be a hot area. I don't know if anybody saw it, but Nightline did a special last week on the importance of the Capian to the future oil supply. They said that it would be as important as the Persian Gulf is now. The downside is the surrounding instability of the countries in the region in regard to pipeline construction and safety, but so far this has not stopped anybody from drilling. They showed a map with seven different pipelines either being constructed or being planned. FGII stands to benefit, and so does the entire sector.

As far as FGII valuation goes, the new shipyard cost them nothing. They have a good balance sheet, have plenty of cash to finance growth, and have a huge backlog $132 million at the end of Sept. The estimates for 98 are very low, factoring in almost 0 growth. They just earned .23 X 4 = .92 at current rate assuming no growth give you a PE of 39 or so with trailing growth of 100% + and future potential earnings growth of 60% +. The PE is supposed to be a multiple of earnings growth, so where do you think it should be valued? I think the market is smarter than we give it credit for sometimes and is awarding FGII a relatively high multiple for a very good reason.

Greg



To: HH who wrote (3483)11/21/1997 2:15:00 PM
From: Big Dog  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
Heyward -- You mean FGII is a welding company, sort of like Boeing?