To: craig crawford who wrote (10648 ) 11/21/1997 1:43:00 PM From: gfr fan Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
Craig, you made yourself pretty clear, and also you are obviously a smart guy. However, there are a couple of counter points to some of your facts: First, COMS has faced tough competition before from INTC, CSCO, and others, and I would argue that 3Com has never been stronger to competitors due to its financial position now as compared past battles, and to its market position. Second, while competition is increasing in NICs, Switching, and Remote Access, COMS is in the midst of releasing a slew of new products in these areas (some still not announced) that will carry historically high margins for COMS at market leading price points. Third, one VAR survey is pretty flimsy re: product delays/issues - 3Com still carries a sterling reputation for quality products that are easy to use. I agree wholeheartedly that COMS faces short term business pressures regarding the USR acquisition, Asia, etc. However, what I look at is a company that: 1) is leading in remote access central site sales which gives it a huge leg up in the coming VPN game. 2) is dominate for all access points into the network from LAN attached NICs to modems, which gives it a huge leg up in driving advanced software as well as into future cable and modem technologies. 3) is positioned to lead and possibly dominate the coming wave of fast ethernet switching to the desktop in corporate markets. 4) is positioned to gain share in the core of enterprise networks through the CoreBuilder 3500 and 9000 products. 5) is positioned to lead the wave of ATM WAN access as enterprises begin to migrate from frame relay in late 98. 6)has the hottest consumer electronics device with the Palm Pilot, which only adds to 3Com having the strongest brand name in the networking industry - translation meaning that this is a huge advantage for the SOHO/retail market which is coming fast. So while I acknowledge that short term you may be right, I think your Swan Song story is wrong, and that over time COMS at 35 is a good price.