we are blessed
just in/out from e-mail tray
From: J
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2012 9:43 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of January 16 - gold shall come, all over, everywhere
10,000 gold? sounds right, but the eventual price can overshoot the proper value
there are many who are calling the end of gold, as in "we are in the end stage of the gold mania"
(i) most of the many did not call the start of the gold rise ... okay, never mind
(ii) more than enough do not own gold ... but why quibble
(iii) some rose with gold but fail to appreciate its full 9999 beauty ... hey, no one is w/o fault
(iv) enough do not see the rise of tyranny ... so not everyone can identify a new bull market, every time
(v) none of the many know the 80/20 rule (subject to back testing of dead bulls), and so cannot realize that 80% of the gains of bull would ordinarily come within the last 20% of the ramping elapsed time, and if so ... the splendor is still in our future
iow, even if we in truth are near the end of gold's rise, a so far truthfully very tepid and lethargic climb that has lasted 11 years,
going from 274 to 1660, for a gain of 1,386 (accounting for 20% of imputed gain of bull), then
gold ought to rise from its current 1660 to tack on 80% gain of bull (1,386 / 0.2 = 6,930) and
result in a peak-needle pricing of (1,660 + 6,930) 8,590 within its bull life of 2 more years,
give or take a few months and add or subtract a few dollars.
let us use yahoo as back-test subject finance.yahoo.com
start of bull: january 3rd 1997 @ 0.77/shr (after meandering for years, finally leaving the steady-state price behind and never looked back)
end of bull: january 3rd 2000 @ 118.75/shr (needle all-time high)
all-in bull-gain: 118/shr (do not quibble over the two cents!)
elapsed bull run time: bang-on 36 months
start of bull-run-end-stage: 28.8th months from inception, or end may 1999, (by definition)
yahoo price in end may 28 1999: between 37/shr, and as percentage of total bull gain, approx 37/118 = 31% of total eventual all-in bull-gain
close enough for government work
observation: the last 20% elapsed time of any bull party is as enticing as the spanking new start of a bacchanalian orgy; is not only worth staying for but also of merit to get in on the act for the bystanders.
we of course should not compare useless gold to yahoo, because gold save souls and yahoo just delivers the mail
besides, i do not even see a gold bull; i only see a gentle incline of the gold's rise, at a rate slower than the bull market in paper money
by the slope function we must count on the parabola, impute the hyperbola, surmise the exponential, and dare to dream the asymptote
must play for keeps, once in so many generations, for we owed it not to ourselves, but must gift it to those who follow us
we are in a game where most must fall so that a few may rise, and
to those who dare, the prize
as reward for either blind faith and/or multidisciplinary approach, merging math, sciences, engineering, history, philosophy, economics, dark fears, fevered daydreams, terrible nights after horrible days, so as to emerge to wonderful days and fantastic nights
1999 Dec 31st USD 288/oz
2000 Dec 29th USD 274/oz -6%
2001 Dec 31st USD 279/oz +3%
2002 Dec 31st USD 348/oz +25%
2003 Dec 31st USD 416/oz +20%
2004 Dec 31st USD 438/oz +5%
2005 Dec 30th USD 519/oz +18%
2006 Dec 29th USD 638/oz +24%
2007 Dec 31st USD 833/oz +31%
2008 Dec 31st USD 889/oz +7%
2009 Dec 31st USD 1,095/oz +23%
2010 Dec 31st USD 1,421/oz +30%
2011 Dec 31st USD 1,567/oz +10%
2012 Jan 19th USD 1,660/oz +6%
From: B
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2012 2:52 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of January 16
Some erotic gold porn from John Embry today (J, control yourself <g!>):
kingworldnews.com
“I’ve been of the mind for a considerable period of time that the gold price really wouldn’t accelerate to the upside until such time as the physical market finally overwhelmed the paper market. But I think we’re reaching the stage now where there is mounting buying of physical because people are starting to realize the paper price is fraudulent.”
John Embry continues:
“We’re very close now to that important moment where the physical market actually does overwhelm the paper market, and as this takes place you will see massive moves in the price of gold. I will finally be convinced the physical market has gained ascendancy when the gold price is going up 4% or 5% a day or $100. That’s going to happen.
The ‘London Trader’ is right when he says there is a lagging effect from the physical purchases which is later reflected in the price. In the end, the Achilles heel of the paper manipulators is they have to be able to get enough physical gold to handle demand. So, I agree with the London Trader there is a delayed reaction.
I’ve had this discussion with a friend of mine, who was very active in the gold market of the 1970s, and he witnessed the London Gold Pool supplying as much gold as was necessary to keep the price suppressed. But at some point the entities working the London Gold Pool realized they only had a finite amount of gold. Even though they hate gold, they realized they couldn’t sell it all....
To hear legendary Jim Sinclair discuss which company he believes
is the best investment and why click on the logo:
“I think we’re getting to that point once again, and that will be the inflection point that will kick off the physical explosion in the price. I’ve been surprised the suppression has gone on as long as it has. The gold has been coming out of the Western vaults through leasing, but I believe that has a very finite life now.
The minute this thing gets away and we start to have a real market and prices start to reflect real supply/demand, it will bring in a lot more demand at the same time supply is being diminished. This is why you’re going to have price moves of staggering dimensions.
What we are seeing, to date, is just the beginning because the market has been rigged the whole way up. But the fact is gold has risen from $250 to as high as $1,925 and that just reflects the power of the fundamentals. We haven’t seen the market break away from the rigging, which it will, and that’s when the huge moves will happen.
The technician I have the utmost respect for is Alf Fields. When I was at a conference in Australia, last November, Alf told me he believed gold had bottomed and would not break $1,500. He has now stated the bottom is in and his next major target is $4,500 on gold. That’s roughly a triple off the lows. That, alone, would kind of support the idea the physical market is going to gain ascendancy.
We will have $100+ up-days in gold. Right now it’s hard to believe, but we are going to see moves that will be staggering to market participants. You could see moves, to the upside, of hundreds of dollars in a day. When you say that, you almost lose people because they cannot conceive of that type of action yet.
If you contrast where we are versus the 70s, we are probably in the ’74 to ’76 time frame. So the big move in gold is still ahead of us. This time the moves will be greater because there is less physical gold available and conditions are infinitely worse. That’s where people get those numbers for gold like $10,000 and I could certainly see something like that happening.” |
