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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: carranza2 who wrote (86077)1/18/2012 10:32:24 PM
From: TobagoJack  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 218201
 
just out, and that which is simplest is most elegant, also most useful

From: J
Sent: Thursday, January 19, 2012 11:30 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of January 16 - back-testing on dead bulls

back-testing the 80/20 rule of thumb (80% of bull gain arises within the last 20% of bull time)

dead bull subject: toll brothers finance.yahoo.com

start of bull: november 1990 @ 0.56/shr (after meandering for years, finally leaving the steady-state price behind and never looked back)
end of bull: july 2005 @ 55.42/shr (needle all-time high)
all-in bull-gain: 55/shr (do not quibble over the odd cents!)
elapsed bull run time: bang-on 176 months
start of bull-run-end-stage: 141th months (11 years and 9 months) from inception, or end august 2002, (by definition)
tol price in end august 2002: 12.50/shr, and as percentage of total bull gain, approx 12/55 = 22% of total eventual all-in bull-gain
much closer than the usual government work

almost bang ^$#@%23 on

we must answer our generation's call of duty