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To: Paul Engel who wrote (40912)11/24/1997 8:05:00 AM
From: Kealoha  Respond to of 186894
 
Paul: from Red Herring on WINTEL

4. THE WINTEL DUOPOLY
BEGINS TO SHOW CRACKS.

By Luc Hatlestad

Last October Intel backed a proposal for digital
cable-TV software advanced by Microsoft's rivals
Network Computer (the Oracle-owned developer of
NC software) and Netscape Communications. In
doing so, Intel broke ranks with Microsoft, which is
developing its own set-top box software based on
Windows CE and WebTV. Is the world coming to an
end?

Don't get too excited. Microsoft
and Intel are still Siamese twins, and
they'll continue to rule the world of
personal computing well into the
next millennium. But Microsoft
wants to sell software for platforms that--like
Windows CE and WebTV, for instance--don't use
Intel's chips.What's happening?

The slowdown in PC sales. The saturation of the
enterprise and home PC markets has motivated
Microsoft to look elsewhere for growth.

The growth of the Internet. Microsoft hopes to find
the profit margins it formerly enjoyed from PC sales in
a combination of Internet markets. The company has
invested in everything from Net TV to online content
development and licensing.

The rise of nonstandard devices. The increased
demand for "smart chips" that will power a new
category of Internet-connected devices like set-top
boxes, smart cell phones, pagers, and personal digital
assistants has opened the door for companies like
Advanced RISC Machines, IBM, and any number of
3D graphics chip makers to partner with Microsoft.
To be sure, Intel has enough money and fabrication
plants to adjust to the market (it has already begun
developing alternatives to the Pentium), but it is a new
challenge.

Internet computing is about more than selling new
PCs, the basis of Intel and Microsoft's traditional
business. So long as the Internet's platforms are using
some variety of Windows, Microsoft has the will and
the money to overhaul its operations (of course,
whether or not Windows will be the dominant
platform for this new era is another issue: see Trend
No. 5). But Intel has not had to reinvent itself since it
shifted from memory to microprocessor production in
the '80s. With all these new factors coming into play,
1998 could be the year we begin to see Wintel,
version 2.0.