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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (46311)	1/25/2012 12:43:45 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

COH - I'd say "I told you so", but I have sold my large COH position in $35-40 range, so I lost - at least opportunity wise - probably more than you did with your short. The stock is not cheap, but the company is executing well so far.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (46311)	1/25/2012 3:03:44 PM
From: Mattyice	Respond to of 78753

Clownbuck, Im known to luuuv a good short discussion. I think i actually had a write up for you on why i disagreed with your COH short but agreed with some of your ideas, but i think a cocktail or three got the best of me on posting go figure... Long story short i think its difficult to short on valuation alone, you need to have a reasonable assurance there is a major flaw either within the company (fraud) or the industry it operates in being that the relationship the industry is operating under will not sustain itself. You mentioned you liked it as a hedge... but if you were looking to hedge not sure why you would use an individual stock to hedge your portfolio exposure unless you had a decent amount of retail exposure.....? Volatility around 18 and realized volatility around 9 would make more sense IMO either with using the VIX, or some of the etf options that is if you wanted to hedge. Matt

To: Spekulatius who wrote (46311)	7/12/2012 3:39:39 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

Re COH, looks like my thesis on COH short was right but my timing was off. I think closing the short at 67$ was the right move but could have, should have reentered. Of course i didn't. What is the lesson? I am not entirely sure. I guess I should have watched this stock and maybe checked the charts better, and take another shot at it at higher prices. Some of the car retailers like AZO and ORLY look topsy. If new car sales increase, maybe old clunkers get off the road and those are the ones that need a lot of parts, which naturally wouldn't be good for those car retailers.