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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Steve Lewis who wrote (4876)11/21/1997 6:34:00 PM
From: Rob S.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11555
 
IDT's IR department confirmed my understanding that SRAM pricing and most other product categories remain firm. While a few parts, mostly highly competitive commodity types, may be continuing to edge down a bit, other parts, such as specialty memories used in high-end communications and networking equipment, are edging modestly up. Inventory levels are low on most ICs. Overal the climate appears quite healthy leading into the normally robust 4th quarter. Several industry forecastes show greater growth over the next few quarters than the industry has seen for about 3 years. Overal indications for the industry is very good. The fact that DRAM prices have continued down the pricing curve, following the dictates of Moore's Law, has many people running scared thinking that overal prices are retreating. Perhaps to the contrary - lower DRAM prices are partly what make sub $1,000 or even sub $500 PCs/NCs and lower prices for other products posible and that creates a whole new flood of demand and industry growth that spurs consumption for other parts. Remember when (maybe 2 years ago) 32 MB of RAM cost a few hundred dollars?

The potential for a slow-down in Asia is probably way overplayed. While these countries account for a large amount of electronic production, their production is largely for export. As such, their demand for US company's parts will not be effected that much. Also, a lot of the "crisis" has to do with a correction in real estate values and currency devaluations. Although if this got extremely out of hand it could bring about a liquidity crisis that would make it more difficult to borrow the huge sums of money needed for electronic and semi plant construction. However, these industries are primary sources of exports and do much of their business in US dollars. AMAT and other semi equipment cos. have been reporting throughout the "crisis" that they are seeing an INCREASED DEMAND for capital goods by Asian companies rather than a decrease as many armchair economists would lead the public to believe. I guess the Asian economies are not so out of wack to cut off their arms because some people think they have grown too muscle bound.