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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (86506)	1/28/2012 1:13:14 AM
From: 2MAR$	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217910

How to double your net worth in one month ? How do you say "DANG" in Chinese sir ? We're going to peak at the state of BIDU this monday earnings , shorts caved in today taking up SINA BIDU SOHU QIHU NTES and ecommerce play ----- > *DANG!* ( well to see if BIDU suffered any similar lag in ad sales that completely took everyone by surprise in GOOG's recent big miss...Google doing a nice bounce today finally off the oversold double bottom at $567 after punishment ) Let it not be said that this has not been a time for bottom fishing in Jan in stocks ...

To: TobagoJack who wrote (86506)	1/28/2012 1:35:34 PM
From: bart13	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217910

Gold not tied to inflation strikes me as mildly deep horse puckey. He also doesn't show any charts on inflation or even note anything about a fully corrected or more accurate CPI. A 10 year MA (or 1 year MA) on CPI w/o lies against gold not only shows a higher correlation (.92) but is also much easier to see when comparing gold against a paper asset like the Dow - and it also clearly shows how inflation change rates are the key on switching from hard to paper assets. CPI w/o lies peaked just three months after the gold peak in Jan 1980, and hit bottom in 6/2002 very close to a gold bottom around $300. Here's an actual dollar gold correlation since 2002 - and it sucks. Then we have the dollar indexes since 1970: While it's true that the dollar did bottom in 1980 around the time that gold peaked and that there is a correlation between gold and the dollar from 1970 to 1980 much like from 2002 to date, the huge dollar spike in 1985 and then fall into 1987 has zero correlation with what gold did. There's also zero correlation between the dollar bottom in 1995 to the peak in 2002, and gold prices. WAY too much variance and way too many false signals for my taste. Another issue - if its supposedly all about the dollar, why did gold go up so much in all other currencies? If the relationship or correlation is so good, why is the dollar off only about about 33% since the top in 2002 of $1.20 and gold is up well over 600%? CPI w/o lies is at least up over 125% since 2002, SGS CPI about 150%. The dollar value is determined by its relationship to other fiat currencies like the Euro or Yen, and all of them aren't based on anything except 'full faith & credit', aka CONfidence and the whims of manipulating governments or central banks, etc. Gold sees through the crud of floating currencies and all the machinations, and so does inflation... and inflation change rates are substantially and consistently better at tracking gold price changes. Lastly, neither the dollar nor inflation are the full answer - lots more things affect gold prices. From my blog: Major reasons for gold price changes, in no particular order: Limits in supply, "peak cheap gold" Changes in demand (investment, jewelry, manufacturing, central bank etc.) Inflation direction & speed of change Real interest rate direction Fear - social, political, "financial system", peer pressure, safe haven Pain & Misery index (unemployment plus inflation rate) Changes in confidence of money or a given currency or the "financial system" Manipulation/control/intervention by central banks and others Mania Technical analysis factors High general volatility This is not intended as a complete list but at least provides a framework within which to judge price action.