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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James R. Barrett who wrote (24684)	11/22/1997 12:48:00 AM
From: hpeace	Respond to of 132070

James, I think earlie is 87% in his piggy bank and 13% he told his mom to keep in a safe place..I think his mom buried it in a tin can in the back yard. He's sleeping like a baby.

To: James R. Barrett who wrote (24684)	11/23/1997 8:56:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

JRB: I've actually recommended a zero percentage of stocks for several months. (Note the nickname.) While I've been early in this call, in some respects it is not consequential, as I expect all the little lambs to be shorn right down to their epidermus when this bubble lets go. Few will hang on to their capital, and in the aftermath, even a little capital will buy a great deal more. In a deflationary meltdown, cash is not king, it is emperor, therefore one ought to have as much of it in a safe place as is possible. I've heard the old saw...."but 90 day bills pay next to nothing in interest...." and this is true, but the sale of all stock now locks in the outrageous profits accrued in this mania, ensures buying power in the aftermath, conserves capital and prevents major losses. Most won't do this as most are both greedy and stupid. I know next to nothing about gold, but I also recommend the purchase of some form of gold or high quality gold stocks (a few percentage points maybe), but not until the bubble burst is underway. As the market begins to flop, everybody will desire or desperately need liquidity, especially all those crazies who are on full margin. As the margin calls begin to swell the selling, the only thing that will be saleable will be gold stocks, and if past is prologue, even though many investors will want gold related investments, gold stocks will fall for a bit until the initial crush subsides. The world is awash in U.S. dollars and U.S. treasuries. If any of the big Asian holders start selling (and they will), the U.S. dollar will come under pressure, and there will be serious losses in the bonds. Gold will benefit. Most investors think gold is a good hedge against inflation, and history suggests that it does a reasonable job at this. What many don't know, is that historically Gold is a better, indeed it is an excellent hedge against deflation. While it might sound absurd, I consider short positions (or put option positions) in the tech sector to be the safest place for at least some part of a portfolio in the current environment. Personally, I expect the techs to lead the market retreat, and to fall the farthest. Shorting them is already beginning to pay a modest return to the Darth Vader fraternity. The party has been fun, but midnight is at hand. Exit through any available door or window. Best, Earlie