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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (2527)	11/22/1997 1:39:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Respond to of 78627

St. Joe Corp. A classic value investment which I have been unable to get anybody interested in on this board, though I have tried numerous times. This stock is 20% of my portfolio. It is a pure asset play. They own 3% of the land in Florida and are just starting to do something with it. No earnings yet, no analyst coverage yet...but they've got the management team and the strategy has come together. If you spend two hours looking at the press releases since May of 1996 you will be fascinated, I guarantee you. If you do that much and e-mail me privately, I will be happy to send you a formal asset valuation. (Actually, if you have access to the Motley Fool on AOL its all posted there in realtime) Anyway, the stock has had a run. I'm pretty happy. The reason I post this now is that their bid for Florida East Coast (FEC) just blew up. It was announced after the bell today. FEC will tank on Monday. The bid was for 102, but the stock was trading for 110 because everybody was certain SJP would sweeten it. There were lots of speculators, in other words. FEC will tank on Monday I think. I would advise you to research it this weekend because Monday's price could be very irrational. I think its worth well over 100, but be greedy - look for 80. Its kind of a sister company to FEC. The valuation technique is pretty similar. And St. Joe too could be fun on Monday. I think it may drop hard too for a very stupid reason (refusing to overpay for an acquisition) and I still think it is significantly undervalued. In other words, we might get a second bite at the apple. I refuse to put a number on it, but what I say is this. I know real estate. The company is worth $100 a share conservatively. Actually very conservatively. I valued it at 100 when I bougt at 65. That was before they hired credible management. And before they had a strategic plan. I figure if the assets are worth $100 or more, the assets plus excellent management and a strategic plan are worth far more than that. The stock trades at 93 and I think it will drop (for a stupid reason) on Monday. If you can buy this at 85 you won't regret it 3 years from now. I don't know if we will see 85, but if it does, you'll want to have your research done. (This is how much I believe in this company. It is 20% of my portfolio, but I WANT it to drop another 10% so I can buy - steal? - more shares. Hell, I' love it if it went to 10! I would sell the cat, mortgage the TV (I don't own a house) and beg on the street to raise cash to buy more! If any of you have access to AOL's Motley Fool, there is an excellent message board on SJP. Give yourself two hours and you will thoroughly understand the history and investment rationale for this stock. Jim