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To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (10262)	11/21/1997 8:30:00 PM
From: TideGlider	Respond to of 25960

Tulvio: Found this in the semi threads: To: Robert Smith (1234 ) From: still learning Friday, Nov 21 1997 4:48PM EST Reply #1236 of 1242 It was Adams Harkness that downgraded. NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--While analysts expressed optimism about Applied Materials Inc.'s (AMAT) fiscal fourth-quarter earnings, they remained cautious, even skeptical, about the long-term fate of the semiconductor equipment industry. Analysts said that the strong fourth-quarter earnings for Applied Materials and first quarter 1998 projections are not a sign that either the troubled Southeast Asian market or the equipment making industry are fated for an upswing. Investors have worried that currency woes in Southeast Asia will result in order cancellations and restrict semiconductor makers in the region from investing to expand their operations. Making matters worse is the plunging price of DRAM, or dynamic random access memory, chips, many of which are made in Asia. "No one knows (for sure what will happen), but there are clouds on the horizon," said Byron Walker an analyst for with BT Alex.Brown Inc. Late Thursday, Applied Materials said its fourth-quarter earnings were 47 cents a share, compared with 20 cents a year ago. And analysts said the company expects first-quarter earnings of 51 cents a share, three cents higher than First Call estimates. Applied Materials has not experienced any order cancellations, analysts said. In fact. the company said it recently received a total of $183 million in orders for semiconductor production systems from three Asian companies, including $96 million from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Sutro & Co. analysts Gerald Fleming does not contest Applied Material's first-quarter projections. But he said the company might be "overly optimistic." "They are being a little bit naive to believe that what is happening in Asia and with DRAM prices won't effect them," Fleming said. First Call earnings projections for fiscal 1998 were fine-tuned slightly in response to Thursday's earnings announcement, with the consensus figure rising to $2.15 a share from $2.13. According to First Call, 15 of 24 analysts left their ratings for the company unchanged. Thirteen analysts reiterated the equivalent of a buy recommendation. But some analysts agreed that semiconductor equipment manufacturers do not have a good track record when it comes to detecting downturns. "They are usually the last to know," said Gus Richard, an analyst with Hambrecht & Quist Group Inc. And fears about falling DRAM prices and the Asian economy did drive one firm to change its perspective. Adams Harkness and Hill Inc. downgraded the semiconductor capital equipment sector, including Applied Materials, which was cut to market perform from attractive. Nasdaq-listed Applied Materials fell 61/64, or 2.3%, at 36 3/4, on volume of 23.3 million shares, compared with average daily volume of 12 million. -By Johanna Bennett; 201-938-5670 I don't really have to say it: F#$%$ked again.. Bruce I SURE HOPE THIS WASN"T FROM THE CONFERENCE WE WERE EXPECTING!

To: Tulvio Durand who wrote (10262)	11/21/1997 8:35:00 PM
From: Mr. Aloha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

I've seen this before. One sucker pays his dues and goes out and downgrades.. a sector or makes positive comments so others can jump in and reap profits or sell into the buying. I remember an analyst talking about how paper prices were on the way up and the industry was finely turning around etc.. It never happened and it probably never was going to happen. Someone just got someone else off the line. This occured with a paper company called Prins (PRNS). The stock shot up higher and went right back down. Within a relatively short period of time, it was chapter 13...end of story. Did this analyst make a wrong judment or did they perform a service? Adams Harkness is predicting DRAM manufacturing for the next few years. Didn't he hear AMAT tell everyone that there's a transition to .25 which represents 39% of AMAT's business? Doesn't he understand that companies need to keep up with the latest tech. or they loose out and get stuck with low-margin product. The move is on to 256+ dram chips Adam, wake up! Yah, I suppose your right, Adams knows something the CEO of AMAT doesn't huh? :-) Aloha