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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (2948)	11/22/1997 2:00:00 AM
From: james	Respond to of 6136

Peter, I don't know about Roche, though it's buying half of SF bay area, Genentics (for proteins) in 90, Syntex in 92 (for US sale force & land),, & Chiron in 95 (for diagnistics/HBV). My guess (two cents or less) is BMS, or LLY. BMS is weak in drug discovery & developemnt, no pipeline in anti-viral, & has a tradition of licencing. Even though it puts a lot more effords into these areas recently, it is much cheaper & faster to buy something instead of build from scrach. In light of viracept has a lot of room of refinements (perfections), e.g.,bio-availability & counter-resistance, etc. A whole line of drugs could be based on this compound, or what AGPH has already accomplished in other anti-viral fields. Also, although TK inhibitors are old story, but that is what BMS is very fond of & familiar with. The advantage AGPH has is its compounds' pontency against tumor cells. I look at them (that is something I am familiar with) & find them very impressive, even though I don't like the ideas of anti-metabolics for cancer. LLY is excellent in anti-biotics (bacterial/fungal), its prozac is off in 2002. They are also looking for something to dress-up its 10K. Viracept-line might in the billion-range by then. Just to good to pass on, esp., when something so fit into its line of products. Abbott is a dark horse out there. Its PI is OK, but think of the time & trouble it went through to bring it to the market. Also it is not known for bold moves. MRK, PFE, Ciga, SKB, Warmer & Glaxo are extremely good in their own drug-D, no need of anybody else. On the other hand, I really like AGPH to stand alone, because few little pharms make it in the last twenty-years (Syntex was long gone). It will be a role model for the new comers. The chance of AGPH standing on its own is also slim. Under today's HMO pressure, a pharm's product strength doesn't help the bottom line. Product range & mix are equally important, if not more so. Just wags, please don't take it seriousely. regards