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Technology Stocks : SEEC (Symbol SEEC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Karpel who wrote (70)	11/22/1997 8:53:00 PM
From: Don Kelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95

<< ..are you just stumbling around in the dark like me..?>> Trust me, I'm Gill Bates, and I'm here to help you overcome some of the stumbling blocks in your analysis of SEEC, and in your investment thinking in general: Except for blue chip companies with consistent dividend records, the stock market is like a Vegas casino. When you buy a momentum stock, essentially you are "investing" in, say, red on a roulette wheel. It is sheer self-deception to look at it any other way. The only difference is that in the stock market they call it "expectation of future earnings." At least in Vegas it's called what it really is -- a bet. Short term, whether you win or lose (in Vegas or the market) depends on luck, timing and disciplined money management. Equally important, you have to be aware of the market fad of the moment to know what's hot and what's not (or which games have the smallest house advantage). Longer term, winning is a function of luck, timing, good money management and, most important, accurately assessing a stock's fundamentals and future growth prospects. I would argue that: a) the market frenzy over Y2K stocks peaked last December and January and has been declining ever since (except for minor spikes here and there); b) Seec has no significant operating history, ergo it is impossible to predict its future business prospects; c) it is grossly overvalued and cannot sustain its current price level in view of a) above, and; d)dilution, short selling, rumored insider unloading and other forces will continue to drive down the price short-term. My advice to you, Richard, is try to avoid being tripped up by human nature -- your own or the collective human nature that is the stock market. Every time you read a post with phrases like "I hope," "I expect," "I wish," "if only the MM's had not manipulated...," etc, you are likely hearing from a loser. Problem is, in the raging bull market of the past few years, many of those "losers" are currently paper winners. When the bear market comes -- and it may already be here -- their portfolios will crash and burn and they'll blame some "external force." Most won't understand that the seed of failure was there from their very first buy order. In short, I believe your analysis is based on hope rather than facts. Even if you're right, your timing is way off here. Don't forget that often the strongest position one can take in a stock is to simply watch it. Forget the "600 Billion" hype. The best way to predict which companies will profit from the Y2K problem are the ones that have hundreds of contracts already. How many does SEEC have vs. how many they "hope" to get? You've obviously done a lot of homework on Seec. Now do some on similar companies like Zitel, DDIM, et al. When you look at the big picture, I think you'll see SEEC in a different light. And by the way, we here at Microsoft have the only true Y2K "magic bullet fix." It's made us zillions. Here's the actual code: 1. From a Dos prompt, type del C:\Windows 2. Insert Windows 98 CD Rom 3. Type D:\setup.exe 4. Follow screen prompts 5. Be sure to check our web site next week, when we'll probably have a patch to fix the bugs introduced by our last patch that fixed the other bugs.

To: Richard Karpel who wrote (70)	11/23/1997 10:09:00 PM
From: phbolton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95

Richard: for someone who doesn't even read SEC fillings to find out that they lost their biggest customer your claims for expertise are marginal.... who believes that $600 billion nonsense? can you come up with any plausible justification of this number? can SEEC compete with the big kids like Gemini, IBM, CA? or even the mid-size ones like Keane? of the smaller ones like mercury? remember 780k of that 2 mil last quarter was anot to be repeated payment from VIAS