Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Mainstream Politics and Economics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (8801)	2/9/2012 5:05:02 PM
From: Wharf Rat	1 Recommendation Respond to of 85487

It's official: 2001 recession only lasted eight months WASHINGTON (AP) — The committee that puts official dates on U.S. economic expansions and contractions said Thursday that the economy pulled out of recession in November 2001 and since then has been in a recovery phase. The announcement from the National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee confirmed what many economists have believed: that the economy has resumed growing, albeit slowly. "At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U.S. economy in November 2001," the committee said in a statement Thursday. The committee, which consists of top academic economists, met in Cambridge, Mass., to discuss the issue. The 2001 recession began in March that year, so today's announcement makes it an eight-month downturn. The committee said the length of the downturn was "slightly less than average for recessions" in the post World War II period. In its statement, the dating committee stressed that its announcement of when the downturn ended did not mean that the economy's hard times ended at that point. "In determining that a trough occurred in November 2001, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity," the panel said. The panel said it was determining only that in November 2001, the recession — which it defines as a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy — came to an end and the economy began growing again. After contracting the first three quarters of 2001, gross domestic product or GDP, the country's total output of goods and services, began growing again in the fourth quarter 2001 and has been rising since, although in a zig-zag pattern that has not been strong enough to keep unemployment from rising. The committee struggled for months to reconcile the fact that while the U.S. economy resumed growing in late 2001, as measured by the gross domestic product, unemployment continued to rise. While the determination of the official ending date for the recession is of interest to economic historians, it is likely to bring little comfort to the nation's unemployed. The unemployment rate hit a nine-year high of 6.4% in June. While an often-used thumbnail definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, the NBER uses a more complex procedure that looks at a variety of monthly statistics to determine when recessions begin and end. In the past, it has not used GDP to determine the beginning and end points for recessions because that statistic from the Commerce Department is compiled on a quarterly basis. However, because of the unusual nature of this downturn, where growth resumed so far ahead of an improvement in the unemployment rate, the committee decided to look at GDP as well as four other indicators — employment, real income, industrial production and wholesale-retail sales. The NBER in its statement said that it waited to call an end to the 2001 recession because it wanted to be sure any subsequent downturn would be a separate event and not just a continuation of the 2001 slump. "The main reason that the committee's decision in this episode was particularly difficult was the divergent behavior of employment," the NBER said. "The committee felt that it was important to wait until real GDP was substantially above its pre-recession peak before determining that a trough had occurred." The so-called jobless recovery surpasses in duration a similar jobless recovery that George W. Bush's father had to endure in the months after the recession of that period ended, in March 1991. The NBER did not declare the 1990-91 recession over until December 1992. By that time, Bush's father had lost his re-election bid to Bill Clinton, who had made the economy's poor performance the centerpiece of his campaign. Copyright 2006 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. usatoday.com

To: Wharf Rat who wrote (8801)	2/9/2012 5:14:42 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Respond to of 85487

I deny it. :>) Hint... the economy is not the stock market index. The stock market index is not the economy, that is certain. But it is foolish to deny that trillions of dollars of perceived wealth were wiped out in much the same way that trillions of dollars of perceived real estate wealth were wiped out. The results of both the stockmarket and R/E crashes were much the same. Spending and debt were increased during the boom times and then the ability to service the debt went away when the assets devalued. In addition, government spending went up based on the income created by the taxes during the dotcom boom. When that tax base went bye bye and the spending didn't cease, we had a perfect set up for an economy on the brink of disaster. The stock market ain't the economy, but it certainly does impact it (and vice versa)