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To: Road Walker who wrote (40947)	11/23/1997 7:33:00 PM
From: Dom B.	Respond to of 186894

OT - Good Sunday evening Big John...Clark/Addisson? Seems like the Bucs slipped on Bears tracks at Soldiers Field... the Pats' Mcginest & Co did a good job today, don't you agree? Intc and other techs should do well this shortened week. A happy Thanksgiving to all...I'll be spending mine in Carlsbad near Humble Carl's territory (i'm not saying that he is bad...hehehe)...//dom

To: Road Walker who wrote (40947)	11/25/1997 7:55:00 AM
From: William Hunt	Respond to of 186894

JOHN --- THOUGHT YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED---November 18, 1997 Steady Growth, Low Inflation May Help U.S. in Asian Storms By CHRISTINA DUFF Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL WASHINGTON -- The U.S. economy is expected to weather the Asian financial typhoon with steady growth and low inflation, newly released economic forecasts show. The burgeoning crisis "will probably not have a significant impact" on prospects for U.S. expansion in the next five years, concluded the National Association of Business Economists in its latest quarterly survey. Moderate growth and low inflation are "likely to continue" at least through 2003, the survey said. Link <Picture: [Go]>Federal Reserve's report on October industrial production and capacity utilization ÿÿÿÿÿÿ* More information about the National Association of Business Economists survey is available at nabe.com. The full survey is available to NABE members only. That was also the conclusion Monday of two other big economic groups: the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. While the financial crisis in Asia probably means those countries will be less able to buy U.S. exports, domestic demand is "perhaps a little stronger" than thought even a couple months ago, helping to offset export weakness, said Peter Jarrett, an economist with OECD, a group of 29 nations that evaluate one anothers' economies. And the president's chief economic adviser, Janet Yellen, also said Monday that the administration likely will revise downward slightly its 1998 growth projection by "some tenths" of a percentage point as a result of the Asian turmoil; she declined to give figures. Inflation Is Expected to Diminish Remarkably, forecasters expect inflation to diminish in years ahead. The Philadelphia Fed's latest quarterly survey of forecasters said inflation will likely grow at an average annual rate of just 2.65% in the next 10 years. That's the lowest projection since the Fed bank began tracking the measure in 1991; the survey's third-quarter forecast had been 3.0%. In the NABE survey, forecasters for the first time cited deflation as a potential economic concern. All three economic groups generally agree that after soaring at about a 3.7% annual rate this year, the economy is likely to slow to somewhere between 2.6% and 2.8% in 1998 -- a rate that's still healthy but considered more sustainable, because it's traditionally less likely to spark inflationary pressures. The OECD concluded that the U.S. has enjoyed low inflation despite heady growth in part because of special circumstances, including falling import prices from the appreciating dollar and lower health-insurance premiums. The group said there's not enough evidence yet that the economy has undergone some sort of long-term structural change that will hold inflation down for a long time. Indeed, the increases in productivity in the last couple of years are "too recent to be counted on as a permanent feature of the economy," the OECD said. The group expects the Federal Reserve, which hasn't raised interest rates since March 1997's quarter-point increase, to raise rates by a half a percentage point sometime in the first half of 1998 -- yet another indication the Asian financial turmoil isn't expected to hold back U.S. growth too much. "There's a need to do this; it's just a matter of timing," said Mr. Jarrett, the OECD economist. Impact of Immigrants in U.S. The OECD also examined the impact of immigrants, and found they provide a "very small" overall surplus to the U.S., or a few billion dollars a year. Despite much fear that immigrants -- who come mostly from Mexico these days and less often from European countries such as Germany and Italy -- are hurting the earnings of native workers, it's actually other low-skilled immigrants who are hurt the most, the report concluded. The foreign-born pay 32% less in taxes than the native-born, but their overall effect on the U.S. can still be positive, the OECD said. While immigrant households receive 64% more than natives on a per-household basis in welfare benefits, they draw less Social Security and Medicare. On average, they receive about 7% less in benefits. So, is the average American paying more to support these newcomers? Each extra 1,000 immigrants costs a native resident about 10 cents a year in extra state and local taxes. But that's more than offset by a 40 cent decline in the federal tax burden, leaving a net gain of about 30 cents. BEST WISHES BILL