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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (47495)	2/10/2012 1:54:52 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70309

Is it Time to Prepare for a Market Sell-Off?By Matt Nesto \| Breakout – 2 hours 43 minutes ago "Facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable" Mark Twain brilliantly said. In the attached video Macke and I address a key statistic that is hugely telling about the reality of the current market environment. First flagged by our friends at Bespoke Investment Group earlier this week, the numbers show the S&P 500 has not declined over 1% since December 28, 2011; that's 29 consecutive trading days. Factset This is the longest period of calmness since a 37-day run that ended January 19, 2011. Even though it appears today might mark the end of the latest streak, it doesn't necessarily mean the rally is dead, but it does warrant investors start planning for what's ahead. On that note, it's important to look at this week's marked uptick in volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index ( VIX). The Vix is on course to post its best week since August and snap a 5-week downtrend. "This is the time to say, 'if we fell 2%, what would I do?'" Macke suggests, pointing out the need to know if you would panic at the thought of giving up your gains, or see it as an opportunity to start buying stocks. A lot of investors out there fell that a sell-off is looming, but history tells us that the chance of the market actually delivering what is expected by the masses is quite small. That said, I think that there are a number of fundamental reasons why a mild dip will be short-lived. Since December 28th the S&P 500 is up roughly 8%. If you peel it back another 10 days to December 19th, the gain spikes to a 12% move, with nary a dip or buying opportunity. To make matters worse, the gains for a few key sectors, like Financials ( XLF), Tech ( XLK), and Materials ( XLB), are nearly twice as large. What that means is, unless you were in the market all the way, you're probably lagging way behind, especially if you've been waiting for a pullback. So, when one finally comes, there's good reason to believe that it would be met by a lot of late money. Macke has his shopping list in place already and is excited by the thought of a dip to back to 1300 on the S&P 500. That is only 3.7% below Thursday's close, which marked a 7-month high. Is this market strong and resilient or fatigued and complacent? Please answer our poll question below! finance.yahoo.com