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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (8954)	11/22/1997 11:25:00 AM
From: studdog	Respond to of 18056

There is growing clarity about earnings trends next year. We have had several warnings and earnings downgrades in several sectors for several different reasons, most due to overseas problems or overcapacity.( Avon, COMS, MUEI, WDC etc.) AMAT used the dreaded "visibility" word in their conference call, as in "lack of". But our market continues going up. I think that earnings expectations have got to come down. DOes anyone have access to current I/B/E/S one year ahead analyst earnings expectations? A couple of weeks ago it was $50.37. This I think is a key indicator to watch. So, the only thing that I can see that can prop up this market is a significant drop in bonds (They would have to go below Fed Fund rates) or major multiple expansion (in the face of declining growth rates). Dragging out the Fed valuation model of 12 month earnings estimates/ current 10 year bond yields gives us a fair value of the S&P of 863, and a current overvaluation of 10%. Not table pounding overvaluation especially if bond yields fall. BUT, if earnings expectations are clearly being reduced than we have another story. Even some of the major bulls on these boards (Iqbal) are looking for bond yields to rise, so with falling earnings expectations and rising yields we, IMHO, could see very poor performance of the S&P. I would really appreciate getting up to date I/B/E/S numbers from anyone out there. Thanks Karl

To: Tommaso who wrote (8954)	11/22/1997 12:13:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 18056

And some more, Yamaichi news LONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of England said on Saturday it was keeping a watchful eye on the crisis at Japan's Yamaichi Securities Co Ltd which has banking and equities operations in London. Haim