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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Follies who wrote (87142)	2/12/2012 10:44:51 PM
From: RJA_	5 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218857

>>What's your point? JS is calling MQ on his word games. MQ is dodging, twisting, throwing up smoke, clouds of dust, trying to disappear into same... JS is not letting him loose, its put up or shut up... Of course MQ will not shut up... But in this case, he cannot put up either. MQ is a bright guy, but IMHO his post are more sophistry than substance and he is being called on it.

To: Follies who wrote (87142)	2/12/2012 11:17:03 PM
From: Joseph Silent	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 218857

Do you disagree with the statements? Do you think the eruption is not a certainty? Let's focus on the second: Do you think the eruption is not a certainty? Here is the story. A = {event that place X will erupt} MQ, in his usual put-down style, attacked a simple post I made about karma. This is a subject he knows nothing about. Having pointed that out, and explaining why I could say, with probability 1, that the sun will rise tomorrow (without using science or technology), it became necessary to show that MQ has trouble even where science is concerned. 1. MQ says event A is highly likely, and P(A) = 1, in the same breath. Like MQ, one of those statements is redundant. 2. MQ has not shown us how he arrived at either clause. 3. MQ, apparently, can start anywhere and arrive anywhere. You can do this only if your mouth is larger than your head. Now take the first: Do you disagree with the statements? It is not my nature to agree or disagree. I do not attack people even when I know they are wrong, let alone toss around things I know little or nothing about. Now do you suppose MQ has any such constraints? :) Whether place X erupts or not has nothing to do with how MQ decided it probably will and will in the same breath.

To: Follies who wrote (87142)	2/13/2012 12:07:39 AM
From: Maurice Winn	2 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 218857

Thanks for unlurking. I know people are reading and thinking for themselves, but it's nice to have reality drop out of the aether. I'm fairly long in the tooth and have dealt with literally thousands of people over many years and when they come along with approaches like the Silencer, I know they are not really interested in thinking, discussing or reasoning, let alone learning something. So there's no point in me continuing with him [and it's obviously a him]. I didn't think it took highly concentrated reading to get my point on the eruption probability. The person who said "a billion years" is obviously not even reading, let alone thinking, and definitely ignorant [about that situation]. You obviously understood what I wrote and are curious about it. The Silencer just wants to score some silly points. Meanwhile The Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming have snow on Rome and a huge freeze across Europe. I should calculate probabilities for 2020 refreeze of Little Ice Age proportions or full-scale Reglaciation. At present it's more of a guess than a bet. I'm actually betting on Taupo's eruption [or one of the othe locations along the eruption zone out to White Island, such as Matata]. I wouldn't invest in high latitude places due to the risk of refreeze and have not yet bought tracts of Australia or Africa, but I'm thinking about it. San Diego region might be good as a speculative investment as hordes move south. I absolutely would NOT buy anything in Taupo area and am reluctant to spend more than the odd night there. I do drive through it [if there are not continuous earthquakes at the time]. I do depend on the electricity supplies from the Waikato River, which would all cease, but disruption is not life-threatening to me, nor of great economic consequence. People think Christchurch earthquakes have been a problem. That's nothing compared with what will happen when Taupo goes up. The earthquake in Wellington will also make Christchurch look minor. That's an event that will happen. The question is when. Wellington is all hills so that's going to be a lot more fun than Christchurch, which is all flat. Mqurice