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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Spekulatius who wrote (46563)2/13/2012 7:12:55 PM
From: Mattyice  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78670
 
Clownbuck,

Is there any concern with their very capital intensive business (capex seems really high to me) and minimal return on cash flows? This is a relationship that i do not think works at least not for me....

If china slows down any, my feeling would be you are left with an over invested company who cant cover their cost of capital (if that even matters).

Also what is your take on the increasing debt load of the Japanese Govt and forever decreasing interest rates on the JGBs? This is also a relationship that i do not think can hold... i think its actually very toxic.... the effects on a large industrial would be not so good, if all of a sudden there cost of capital is say 8% or 10% and turns into 15%.... Personally i believe they could be the canary in a cold mine of sovereign debt drama...



To: Spekulatius who wrote (46563)2/20/2012 2:05:32 AM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78670
 
decided to dump 4091.T at 538Yen for a quick gain. FWIW, there is a guy featured in Barrons that has some concerns about Japan (and japanese steel stocks in particular). I think his plays on CDS for Japanese steel companies makes sense:

online.barrons.com