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To: Bearcatbob who wrote (163960)	2/15/2012 4:20:10 PM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206338

Hi Bob, I think our economy has anemically responded to excess stimulus -most of it was mis spent to political supporters 2- years ago. In between local governments have downsized their expenditures. This has been mirrored by an over exposed consumer. Auto debt has been paid down and is beginning to pick up as the fleet of cars is high in miles and at a record age. Real estate is still upside down and that's why big savings is going on 4% vs a negative number 8-10 years ago. I see great economic activity where ever shale oil activity is going on. Where natural gas has been strong - its stopping fast. Oil unconventional drilling activity will continue to be robust for years. This uses up tools trucks pumps pipes welders and the land owners are getting very wealthy leasing property. Every 100 barrel of oil not imported puts that 100 with in our economy - plus all of the drilling activity. Our economy has these underlying strengths being somewhat depressed to what has been a diminishing negative influence - cars are over and getting better - real estate is still lagging to a lesser degree and in areas (like Texas getting better now). No recession but anemic recovery, the farther out you go in time, the better it will approach a typical recovery. JMHO. Bob

To: Bearcatbob who wrote (163960)	2/15/2012 9:13:26 PM
From: t4texas	3 Recommendations Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206338

perhaps you are familiar with lakshman achuthan of the economic cycle research institute, ecri. they made a recession call in early september 2011, and he said their long lead indicators tell them there is nothing policy makers can do about it. i saw him say that on cnbc. you can see an update video on bloomberg featured on the ecri home page, businesscycle.com. i expect another update sometime soon on tv, but i will wait because i am not a subscriber. these guys are good, and they are really going to be tested this time. i recall back in the summer of 2010 when the markets went down, and everyone thought the markets were saying a double dip recession was coming. lakshman came on tv in july or august (i recall) 2010 and proclaimed there would be no double dip. it seemed like a tough call at the time, and he was right. i have been amateur following what lakshman says on tv since maybe 2008. he has been very good. the ecri website says they have never made a wrong call on expansion or recession using their indicators. i remember one thing lakshman said in the summer of 2010. it was that the business cycle is stronger than the government trying to mess with it. he said this to give support to his long lead indicator's ability to predict the future of the biz cycle's not going into recession at that time. so lakshman now claims his long cycle indicators say we are going into recession with nothing the politicians and govt. can do about it. in this video i believe he says if we are not in recession by something like may/june, then he will be wrong. you can see the WLIW chart on the home page. businesscycle.com