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To: Archie Meeties who wrote (164035)	2/16/2012 6:23:02 PM
From: raybiese	2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206338

re: article on Why Is Gasoline Consumption Tanking? Archie Meeties: <The data is skewed by factors we don't know about.> That is the point. I do not like not knowing. I think I have figured it out. Sounds like both of us have tapped a gage or two to 'unstick' the needle. However, I learned decades ago that it doesn't work for digital devices and a 'hefty impact', while emotionally uplifting, didn't solve software issues. So, a deeper dig was needed. The analysis is attached below (if you really want to know why). Let me skip to the end: Conclusions: (analysis attached below) 1) *The article presented EIA data that was not representative of actual US gasoline consumption* 2) Any conclusion in the article based on this particular goofy graph/data is, well, goofy I really hate when this happens. It wastes my time, your time and gets me "irritated". However, my bookmark to the 'Of Two Minds' blog was terminated with extreme prejudice. Time to move on. Ray *********************** Analysis: IMHO there are two options: 1) The EIA data presented in the article accurately reflects gasoline consumption and consumption is being skewed by factors we do not know about 2) The EIA data presented in the article does not accurately reflect retail gasoline consumption First thing to do is "check another gage": I do not have access to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse US Gasoline Sales Summary reports. News reports of SpendingPulse data indicate a 3~5% decline YoY in US gasoline use but not the sharp ~25% Oct+Nov drop indicated in the presented EIA data.** SpendingPulse data is based on credit-card swipes and cash and check payments at about 140,000 U.S. gasoline stations. (some SpendingPulse data attached below). SpendingPulse data for Feb 10/12: businessweek.com <snip>Drivers bought 8.01 million barrels a day of gasoline in the seven days ended Feb. 10, according to MasterCard’s SpendingPulse report. Demand fell below year-earlier levels for a 24th consecutive time, decreasing 5.4 percent from 2011<snip> <snip>last week and was more than 5 percent below year-earlier levels for the fourth straight week, MasterCard Inc. said.<snip> SpendingPulse data for Dec 23/11: bloomberg.com <snip>Fuel demand over the previous four weeks was 3.6 percent below a year earlier<snip> SpendingPulse data for Oct 14/11: reuters.com <snip>The four-week moving average, down 2.8 percent last week compared with year-ago levels<snip> SpendingPulse data for Aug 19/11: green.blogs.nytimes.com <snip>The four-week moving average in gasoline consumption is down 3.8 percent from last year<snip> Second thing to do is make sure "the gage is measuring the right thing". Here is the graph presented in the article: More EIA data: eia.gov Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Volumes Sales Through Retail Outlets (Thousand Gallons per Day) .........Jun-11..Jul-11..Aug-11..Sep-11..Oct-11..Nov-11 U.S. 41,039 41,050 40,887 40,524 30,568 29,435 Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Volumes Sales For Resale: Total---Rack (Thousand Gallons per Day) ..........Jun-11....Jul-11.....Aug-11...Sep-11..Oct-11..Nov-11 U.S. 240,532 238,326 243,235 235,618 233,132 234,651 eia.gov Prime Supplier Sales Volumes (Thousand Gallons per Day) ..........Jun-11....Jul-11.....Aug-11...Sep-11..Oct-11...Nov-11 U.S. 363,301 359,159 370,096 359,637 355,416 355,412 Looks like the article presented EIA data for "Retail Gasoline Sales" which was, in fact, "Refiner Motor Gasoline Sales Through Retail Outlets" or some other small fraction of real gasoline consumption. This is "not measuring the same thing" at all. The Mastercard data says "Drivers bought 8.01 million barrels a day of gasoline in the seven days ended Feb. 10" jives approximately with EIA "Prime Supplier Sales Volumes" and not even close to "Sales Through Retail Outlets" by a factor of ~10. Mastercard data agrees roughly with the EIA FAQ: eia.gov which says: How much gasoline does the United States consume? In 2010, the United States consumed about 137.76 billion gallons (or 3.28 billion barrels1) of gasoline, a daily average of about 377.58 million gallons (8.99 million barrels). This was about 3% less than the record high of about 142.38 billion gallons (or 3.39 billion barrels) consumed in 2007. Conclusion: Most of the data in the chart in the article hovered about 60,000 'thousand gallons per day'. Doing the conversion to barrels gives ~1.5 million bbl/d gasoline. This is a goofy number that does not represent US gasoline consumption. Another check: EIA "U.S. Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline" probably includes some exports but this shouldn't be a big fraction. eia.gov Doing some conversions, here is a table for 2010 & 2011