To: Greg Butcher who wrote (820 ) 11/23/1997 7:17:00 PM From: Cadaver Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 852
DEC: Au contraire, DEC is still strong. Unless there is a sharp drop which forms the head, this is not a H & S. You seem to select strong stocks for shorting... Use this rule: The stock has to run up till it's out of breath. It should not rise even on good news. If it goes down on good news, that's an excellent sign. Very nice if it's a hyped up stock, but doesnt have to be. Now, you have to wait till there is a sharp drop on high volume. If this drop penentrates the 50 dma, we are in business. Dont worry if you cant short on this very day...9 out of 10 times, the stock will bounce back up near the previous price. It will drop again. Short AFTER this drop. It's easier to make money shorting than longing. This is because: 1. Overpriced/ overhyped stocks are easier to spot than undervalued stocks. 2. An overpriced stock will always come down sooner or later. On the other hand, many cheap shares will remain cheap for years. No matter how smart you are or how much you know, unless you have the sobreity of a judge, the detachment of a monk, and the patience of a hunter, you cannot expect to consistently win in the stock market. Since only dead people seem to exhibit these qualities without exception, I have chosen to bear the name which continuously reminds me to have the proper mindset when trading stocks.Sobreity of a judge: Be fair when judging stocks. Do not be influenced by analysts or any other opinion. Ultimately, it's your money that's at stake, so you have to be the final judge. No rule, lemma, law or statistic is above common sense. In other words dont get fooled by statements like: "Stock xxx has a PE of 687! Short it!"Without sobreity you make the wrong choices. Detachment of a monk: Dont think too much about how much money you will make if the stock reaches price XX. In fact, dont think about money. Dont fall in love with stocks. Dont hate Microsoft stock because you hate Bill Gates. Do not WANT the stock to go to price XX. Do not WANT the company to succeed or fail. You shouldnt give a damn about what happens to the stock, the company, the product, the CEO. You are in the stock market to make money for yourself, not to ensure justice, equality and peace to the world.Without detachment you'll get killed even after making the right choice. Patience of a hunter: Timing is everything in the market. To maximize profits and minimize losses, you have to act at the right time. And perhaps more important, you have to determine if you should act at all. Buying or shorting too soon, selling or covering too late can kill your profits. If you are unsure about a stock, dont take a position just because you have to take a position in some stock. You make money for your broker, that's all. WAIT for the right opportunity.Without patience, you might not make a profit or actually take a loss, even if you had judged the general direction of the stock correctly. -Cadaver