To: Cogito Ergo Sum who wrote (87283 ) 2/20/2012 3:42:55 AM From: TobagoJack Respond to of 219525 more relaxation on the way, just in in-trayThe PBOC announced a cut to the required reserve ratio (RRR) by 50bps, effective from February 24. This will lower the RRR for large banks to 20.5% and small banks to 18.5%, and make RMB420bn of deposits almost immediately available for lending by the banking system. We see several reasons that prompted this PBOC action: First, we believe that the tighter domestic liquidity condition (as evidenced by the sharp increase in interbank rates last Friday) was a key reason behind the timing of this RRR cut. The amount of OMO redemption was low in February and RMB400bn of reverse repo was due last Friday. Second, the ytd loan growth has been constrained by slow deposit growth. Based on the weak momentum of new lending in the first two weeks in February for the Big Four banks, new lending by the banking system for the whole month of February could be around RMB750bn only, according to our bank analyst. This pace of loan growth, if annualised, would undershoot the lower estimate of annual new lending of RMB8tn. According to the historical quarterly distribution of new loans, the current pace of monthly new lending is behind the target by RMB50-100bn per month. In addition, total social financing -- a broader measure of liquidity for the economy -- fell 45% yoy in January 2012 to RMB956bn according to the PBoC. All these suggests are giving the PBOC pressure for the RRR cut. Third, net capital inflow may not be strong enough. Total FDI inflow has declined in the last few months, as FDI from Europe fell significantly. Contrary to the 2-4% appreciation of most emerging market currencies ytd, recently the RMB FX rate has been steady even during the visit of China Vice President Xi Jinping to the US. We believe that the net capital inflow to China, resumed a few weeks ago, may not be strong enough to convince the PBoC that the reserve growth per se would achieve their M2 growth target of 14%. Fourth, CPI inflation will likely drop to 3.8% yoy in February, much lower than January's 4.5%. Lower inflation in February will provide a bit more room for PBoC to ease monetary policy. Fifth, the need to roll over part of LGFV loans in 2012 could crowd out loans to other sectors. This implies that total new lending this year may need to exceed RMB8tn. Going forward, we expect two more RRR cuts in the coming six months in order to support bank loan growth. We believe the market will gradually form the expectation of one RRR cut per quarter til Q3 this year. We think the market will view this RRR cut as modestly positive in the short run. On sectors, banks should benefit from expanded NIM following the RRR cut. Property names may also get a lift, as more liquidity in the banking system implies increased credit availability for mortgage loans. This, together with the de facto cut in the deed tax by several cities (which broadened the definition of ordinary apartments that are subject to a lower deed tax), imply that central government is tolerating a gradual easing in property policies at the local level. Best regards, Jun Ma Chief Economist, Greater China Head of China/Hong Kong Strategy Deutsche Bank Hong Kong 52F, International Commerce Center 1 Austin Road West, Kowloon, Hong Kong