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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JOHN W. who wrote (2956)	11/23/1997 1:42:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Respond to of 6136

Subject: Re: We all have lost the big picture, current and future sales of Viracept will be the driving factor for the price near term. Date: Sun, Nov 23, 1997 The Viracept sales will largely be the controlling factor of the price until the pipeline has been recognized. Three major events have occurred that seemed to have been lost during this price fluctuation. First we had the resistance issues (no surprisises and were largely inaccurate), to the amazing discovery that PIs were not a cure (no kidding), but then a huge discovery that after the onslaught of all the negative publicity, has been lost. Early treatment (hit hard, hit early) has been soundly proven correct. The issue of using suboptimal therapy and holding PIs back is nonsense. Expect an acceleration of all PIs sales henceforth, for the science will probably not be lost on the physicians and patients as it has on the street. Secondly, the dual protease therapy (Peter Johnson has been banging this drum for years) concept has come to fruition which has been lost on the street, and maybe even on the famed L. Moss. Dual PIs will be the standard therapy in 98 expanding from the current 15% of all those current on the antiretroviral therapy. This will nearly double the PI market overall and will have a more significant effect on the mkt share of Saquinavir and Nelfinavir, since they seem to have the best combination possibilities. -Saquinavir with Viracept resulted an 18%increase in nelfinavir plasma AUC and a 392% increase in saquinavir plasma AUC. When used in combiantion, no dose adjustments are needed. More importantly this will be the best tolerated of the combos. -Indinavir/Viracept; 83% increase in nelfinavir and 51% increase in Indinavir plasma AUC. -Nelf seems to be the PI chose for every possible combination. -Saq/Rit is the combo we know most about and has proven successful for salvage therapy. This has not been realized by the street for any of these companies. Also since Roche has a vested interest in one half of the PIs on the mkt (nelf and saq), expect them to push the very promising results seen thus far with the Viracept/Invirase combo, a win-win situation for Roche especially outside the U.S. "Brian Boyle, MD There is admittedly much we do not know about when and how to use combination therapies of protease inhibitors (PIs) -- alone or in combination with nucleoside or nonnucleoside antiretrovirals -- and much of our current knowledge is based on small pilot studies, according to Dr. John Mellors of the University of Pittsburgh/VA Medical Center. Nevertheless, at the end of the last session on HIV therapy at the worldwide 37th Interscience Conference on Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy (ICAAC), Dr. Mellors delivered a cogent review of what is currently known. Dr. Mellors believes that the standard of care in 1998 will be dual PI therapy with some combination of nucleoside and nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs/NNRTIs)." Finally, someone has said that European announcement will likely drive the price up 3 points for 3 hrs. Probably true, but you fail to realize how the price will react in anticipation of the announcement and the long term effect it will have on the sales. 40%, yes 40% of all Crixivans sales are outside the U.S. Not to mention the sizeable chunk of money that Roche pays upon approval (9M) and the the royalties from saq. Much more complicated than 3 poits in 3 hrs. Don't sell into tommorrows rebound!

To: JOHN W. who wrote (2956)	11/23/1997 1:52:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

Subject: AGPH intrinsic value. Date: Sun, Nov 23, 1997 13:30 EST From: RRanney Message-id: <19971123183000.NAA08420@ladder02.news.aol.com> Just to cheer myself up during this period of weakness in AGPH stock price, I went back and re-read LMoss' two posts in which he attempts to put an intrinsic value on AGPH. (See the posts of LMoss of March 12, 1997 (recall this was just prior to Viracept approval and prior to 2/1 split), and August 27, 1997). Basically, LMoss estimates sales of Viracept of 1.5 billion in the 12 months ending 6/99, which would mean up to $11/share in earnings, which would translate into a stock price of $330 in the last haolf of 1999, assuming a PE of 30. In all the studying and research I have done on AGPH, I have found nothing that draws this analysis into question. He assumes no new AIDS drug that replaces Viracept in the next 3 years (like a vaccine). If any such drug in in the pipeline of any drug company at present, I have not heard of it. The $11 per share earnings from the $1.5 billion in sales might turn out to be a bit much, but even $9 per share would be incredible. And, if I am reading LMoss correctly, his analysis does not even take into account sales of Viracept in Europe, which I believe to be a foregone conclusion by sometime next year. And his analysis gives essentially no value whatever to all the other drugs in the AGPH pipeline! To me this is in incredible buying opportunity for AGPH. I bought more Friday at 39 1/4. I have no idea what the stock price will do on Monday, or next week, or in the short term. But if you have your eye on the long term probable earnings of AGPH, you will be buying at these levels, and holding for many years. This is a Warren Buffett type stock, in my opinion. RR