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To: Bridge Player who wrote (164166)2/19/2012 4:34:30 PM
From: t4texas  Respond to of 206338
 
since you have been looking at the website link with some interest, i suggest you check the wliw chart each week on the homepage. that will give you plenty of advance warning whether lakshman will stick with his recession call or not. you can't see how badly that wli tanked, due to truncation, since the huge decline in 2008, but the blip you see on the little wliw charts shown on the homepage is really, really weak. compared to where the wli (or wliw as they are calling it) was when things were doing well before the great recession, it is a big concern.



To: Bridge Player who wrote (164166)2/19/2012 8:55:55 PM
From: t4texas1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206338
 
let me give ya'll my disclaimer that i am not passing this information to you, because i believe all that lakshman says is true. he just has a good track record in my opinion. i am not short anything, and that is one reason i am paying lakshman a good bit of attention.

from sometime in june 2010 (or around that time) i saw lakshman say on cnbc this below about more frequent recessions and about their starting at higher unemployment rates, etc. check the june 15, 2010 entry at the link below to see the text quoted here immediately below.


"Achuthan sees a ‘strong chance’ of more frequent recessions in the coming decade than at any time since the 1970s. If that occurs, then he points out there will be major constraints on politicians’ counter-cyclical response that did not exist in 2008. That’s because the next recession will begin with unemployment not at 4.5%, as the last one did, but in the high 8% range. Also policy makers won’t be able to cut rates as they are likely to still be near zero, and fiscal spending will be a problem due to all of the borrowed stimulus already fired off."

advisoranalyst.com

this video lakshman did with yahoo finance shows him saying if you think it is bad now, it is going to be a lot worse.

finance.yahoo.com