To: Tom L. French who wrote (721 ) 11/22/1997 9:36:00 PM From: MonsieurGonzo Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1589
TomLF; RE:" Intra-Day Windows..."...one of the things I've noticed--as others surely have more proftiably--with this market, looking at both the SP and stocks, is frequently there's a big window at the open, followed by consolidation and sometimes retracement of all or part of the window. The day's action occurs very early. It suggests being ready to pull the trigger during the previous day's evening attack. What do you think ? Yes Tom, that is a good observation. The S&P Futures boyz make DownTrends more difficult to trade by selling futures, sometimes "Lock-Limit Down" at the open. Everything opens with a Window down low, and then the damn market / stocks rally all day, making it tough to make any money by selling short (in the frigging DownTrend). They do the same thing during UpTrends ~ The markets open WAY up, then sell-off all day long, making it tough to make money in an UpTrend. Obvously, there's a couple of things we can do about that: (1) Trade for 3 or 4-day swings. Refer to this gentleman's posting on the TSO thread...techstocks.com ...he's been using Candlesticks for 7 years (which would be about the beginning of their appearance in the West), and note that one of the time-slices he uses with his METASTOCK package is 4-Day Candles . (2) as you pointed out, Tom - you could take a position at the CLOSE of the previous session. In normal times, this is exactly what a lot of the pros do - They anticipate what the futures boyz are going to do the next day, take a position at the close, and probably sell- or buy-to-close their position on the ensuing bounce or dip. This is probably the classic scalping trade of the old pros. I've seen a lot of the old pros do this on Fridays, Tom - when the market opens UP on a Friday, they sell out quickly, and by 1015 EST, they're off for the day ;-) But, these are not normal times, Tom. The market open, or Morning Attack , has been determined more by overseas markets , rather than by the guys in the pit at the CME trading SPZ futures, who didn't used to think about what happened last night in Japan or Korea or something. Taking a position at the end of the day in anticipation is kinda extra-risky lately, IMHO - And most folks have been behaving as if every trading day was a Friday or something. At some point, we (Americans) will begin to lead the other markets more than follow the Honk or Footsie / DAX stock markets - and the classic scalping tactic from close-to-open will be more reliable. Starting to get interested in the arbitrage between days, eh, Tom ? (^_^) We left a beautiful Hammer followed by a Long White Candlestick on the table last Friday. You can check the SPZ Futures trading (which never stops, world-wide) here on GLOBEX...cme.com ...and as of right now, it says this : S&P 500 DEC97 966.60B +3.60 NSDQ100 DEC97 1074.00B +6.50 -Steve