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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (46747)2/24/2012 6:33:24 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78750
 
SKX.

SKX says, " Inventory write-downs . Inventories are stated at the lower of cost or market. We review our inventory on a regular basis for excess and slow moving inventory. Our review is based on inventory on hand, prior sales and our expected net realizable value. Our analysis includes a review of inventory quantities on hand at period end in relation to year-to-date sales, existing orders from customers and projections for sales in the near future. The net realizable value, or market value, is determined based on our estimate of sales prices of such inventory based upon historical sales experience on a style by style basis. A write-down of inventory is considered permanent and creates a new cost basis for those units. The likelihood of any material inventory write-down is dependent primarily on our expectation of future consumer demand for our product. A misinterpretation or misunderstanding of future consumer demand for our product or of the economy, or other failure to estimate correctly, could result in inventory valuation changes, either favorably or unfavorably, compared to the requirement determined to be appropriate as of the balance sheet date. Our gross inventory value was $402.2 million and $227.7 million and our inventory reserve was $3.6 million and $3.7 million, at December 31, 2010 and 2009, respectively."

Inventory levels have come down. As reported in the quarterlies:
12/10: $399M
1/11: $376M
3/11: $326M
6/11: $238M

I presume this is all a positive. Maybe there's yet to be a huge write-off though. If it happens, it may tank the stock. Imo, it'll be a one-time issue, and the company and stock will recover. (eventually)

Part of being in retail is effectively managing inventory levels: taking inventory mark-downs as appropriate, offering discounts to move merchandise, using factory outlet/warehouse outlet stores. And on the other side of it- making sure stores have enough inventory levels. Given the controlling stockholder family and their experience in the fashion footwear business, I'm believe they have enough savvy and experience to recover from any inventory mistakes they may encounter. The "Shape-ups" business certainly though was THE big inventory overstock problem for them.

Yeah, retail companies can quickly spiral downward. Especially if analysts see same-store comparables (sales) not improving (growing).

I'm holding a couple of losing positions: RSH, which I've mentioned earlier today, and also SMRT. I have some that seem to be okay or at least staying close to my cost. Fwiw, I'm still accumulating WAG.
finance.yahoo.com