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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Engel who wrote (26108)	11/23/1997 1:22:00 AM
From: Columbo	Respond to of 1583711

Subject 18243 MH #0

To: Paul Engel who wrote (26108)	11/23/1997 4:05:00 AM
From: Kashish King	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583711

The last thing the AMD thread needed to hear was confirmation that they were investing in a company which shipped sub-standard products. This tangle of glass and wire is headed for pasture before you can say moo. Hopefully the thing can handle operation as a print server. Nodbody will know if it's another K6 crash or a paper Jam, and they will probably assume it's the printer's fault.

To: Paul Engel who wrote (26108)	11/23/1997 4:14:00 PM
From: Dan Ross	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1583711

O.K. I finally got about 15-20 minutes to get some comments in.... Let it first be known that I am no programmer as I see some people on the thread appear to be. I have done some C++ programming and visual basic.....Hated the stuff....That's why I got out of electrical engineering before it was too late....I hate programming.... I still have the ability to learn technologies very quickly though...... My strength lies in being able to recognize competitive situations for various companies, not being a technical wizard. The following information I learned from a classmate of mine. It should be noted that the guy is a EE and used to be a motherboard designer with Compaq. Basically, he knows his stuff and keeps up with design changes. Compaq used to work closely with AMD to try and get a competitive chip to market. Through doing this, Compaq hoped to get greater margins if there was a cheaper alternative that worked as good as Intel's chip. Getting to the point, Intel allowed AMD to step up the competition over the past 2 years. The pentium and Pentium Pro lines utilized Sector 7 technology on the motherboard. This design was not patented and AMD had the ability to replicate it quite easily. Over the next year, you are going to see P2 commercials left and right. This is Intel's AMD crusher chip. It utilizes a different design (Slot 1) on the motherboard. Additionally, the slot technology is patented by Intel. So what will AMD do to compete with the P2? I don't know......Frankly, my explanation above is quite weak but I can't remember all the technical stuff (not a computer guru...telecommunications is my love). Most technology stocks have their value priced into the stock based on future growth rates. Not 1-3 years out but 6 - infiniti years out. I have done numerous DCF models and repeatedly this is shown. I haven't done a DCF model for AMD.....And I don't have time to right now.....My guess though is that some company with no earnings and a weakening competitive position doesn't deserve its current valuation(even if it is down 50%). PC Sales are slowing in the far east and this company isn't making money to justify the multiple it is getting......118 has historically been a strong support level for the stock.....If it goes below, look out!!! The key engineer responsible for the K6 also left a week ago.... Please, somebody give me a realistic, objective reason why AMD should be priced where it is right now. I cannot find one.... Incidentally, I currently have no position in AMD....not long, not short.....I am thinking about going short.... Take care Dan Ross