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To: J Fieb who wrote (25610)11/23/1997 9:51:00 AM
From: John Rieman  Respond to of 50808
 
DVD-ROM boom................................

ijumpstart.com

DVD-ROM WILL BOOM, PREDICT FORRESTER AND COWLES/SIMBA

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The medium-term prospects for DVD-ROM are excellent, although DVD-Video and DVD-Audio will struggle, according to a recent report from Forrester Research. The market research firm expects PC manufacturers rapidly to embrace DVD, resulting in an installed base of 53 million DVD-equipped PCs by 2002. Another report from Cowles/ Simba Information concurs with the healthy prognosis for DVD-ROM. Cowles predicts that US DVD-ROM title revenues will top $2.3bn by 2001, from $187.5m in 1998. DVD-ROM software revenues wiill represent around 20 per cent of the total $11.6bn US interactive entertainment market in 2001, according to the report.

The Cowles report cautions, however, that it won't be until the turn of the decade that the market picks up. DVD-ROM titles are expensive to make - between $4m and $15m, compared with between $1.5m and $2m for a single disc CD-ROM, claims the report - and the installed base of drives will be so small that few developers would be prepared to take such risks. Besides, all new DVD-ROM drives will play CD-ROMs in any case. Of the few developers that are actually sticking their necks out on DVD-ROM, Tsunami Media is estimated to be spending $8.5m on developing its Crazy 8's title.

The next five years will prove less favorable for the video and music industries' DVD efforts, says Forrester. In 2002, only 5.2 per cent of households in the United States will own a DVD-Video player, while only 2 per cent will have a DVD-Audio player. As a result, Forrester believes that the PC will be transformed into a more viable consumer entertainment device.

DVD's New Content Model is obtainable from Forrester Research, 1033 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, +1 617 497 7090, forrester.com. Interactive Entertainment 1998: Sizing the Market for Games & Recreation costs $1,295. Contact: Tom Schmalzl, +1 203 358 4348.