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Biotech / Medical : 2012 Biotech Charity Contest -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chris08 who wrote (197)	2/29/2012 1:52:03 PM
From: pgo-neil	Respond to of 513

>Biomaven, BioJim and Fred are the three with VVUS in their portfolios.< Biofish has VVUS as a 10% holding. So there are four portfolios. But really, none of this article is close to a slam dunk. And even if VVUS gets bought out for a high value, that money is invested in the remaining portfolio entries, so there is some risk that rocket fueled portfolios which gain significant altitude with a first stage, experience difficulties with a second stage ignition. :-( :-) In my RW account, I sold a third of my VVUS position just because I have gotten more disciplined at taking some profits. So now the question is how to lay off more risk, but keep the expected reward. Options look a little pricey. An April $20 put is about $3.00. What happens if the FDA delays its PDUFA response past that opex date? The time table for Europe has already slid about 2 months to the right. VVUS also has another PDUFA date [for Avanafil] in late April, so the next 60 to 90 days should be very volatile [see Rocket Fuel analogy above; ISP > 420]. This has been a most interesting year in only 2 months. Best, graham --

To: Chris08 who wrote (197)	2/29/2012 2:55:32 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 513

>> I suspect this has vaulted them so far ahead of the rest of us that one of them will be the year end winner. << Well, good to hear that Milt has it too, but..... that's three of the best biotech investors on Earth, so it would make a GREAT show. :-) One thing is certain..... as usual of late, after February I am toast.