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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kollmhn who wrote (164774)	2/29/2012 9:57:14 PM
From: sammie44	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 206326

the s&p report is dated and their recovery is based on stressed assumptions on oil & gas prices but even with much higher oil prices there is a long way from 0-10% recovery to something significantly higher. atpg may pull a rabbit out of its hat and if they do, the entire cap structure will be a homerun, but the mgmt team has underdelivered for years. the overrides eat up so much cash, they need this latest telemark well to come on strong and they need oil prices to stay high for awhile. bonds w/ 29% yield in the 60s in the current rate environment and strong credit markets clearly shows bondholders dont think atp will make it. a ton of the stock short interest is people long bonds and short stock as a hedge so even those that own the bonds won't own them outright. i need to check when the next coupon payment is and see how the liquidity situation looks when they report. doing more first lien debt and adding more npi's doesn't solve the problem of an overleveraged balance sheet. mgmt likes to pitch the thesis that higher financial risk is offset by lower geological risk but the geological results have been crappy for the most part.