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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10238)	11/23/1997 8:21:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, Dangerous picture- I agree. But many voices on this thread (myself included) have been shouting LOOK OUT BELOW in vain for what seems like ages. The public seems to be blind and one of best phrases I've seen on SI said: "In the land of the blind the one eyed person sells to soon". I wrote a bullish post a week ago predicting OEX 910-915 on Thu, and Fri down. The bulls' stampede took out all resistances, and 5 EMA crossed over 21 EMA giving a buy signal on Tue. RESISTANCE IS FUTILE! It is agreed in these parts that valuations are ridiculous, but here's a reminder anyway: 1. Price/Book at all times high and climbing (buy back programs increasing this ratio even more, and let's not forget employees' options) 2. MSFT's CFO declaring the price of the stock is too high. 3. Highest public exposure to stocks ever. 4. Fed says stocks are 20% overvalued. It'll end in tears. IMO the last opportunity for correction to rational valuations was in September, but the market bounced off SPX 900 the day after labor day and now even the external push from EAsia is looked upon as a buying opportunity. The smart money is bailing for quite some time. Mr. Gates and Mr. Allen have transformed together over $1.2B of equity into cash in July-August. Mr. Buffett has allegedly bot $2B cash value stripped bond. What did he sell instead? Re: VIX The volatility jolt of the mini crash is subsiding. I couldn't find any prediction power in the VIX. It rather looks like a trailing indicator. A full scale crash occures when the market can no longer support itself and implodes, not by an external force like war or overseas crashes. Get ready for the Millennium Crash. All the excesses will have to be wrung out of the market. It'll take years. Dow 6500 will not be the end, it would be the beggining. Take another look here: the-privateer.com Excuse the odd mix on this post. ATG

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10238)	11/23/1997 11:17:00 AM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, It is my opinion there are only two things that will make this market go down: lower growth in earnings; and fear. Wall Street recently demonstrated they can manage the fear factor at least for the time being. Maybe in the future it will be different. Lower growth in earnings we have seen from both the DRAM makers and disk drive makers. Earnings affecting companies seems to be sector specific at the moment. I suspect mid December we will start to see where the earning detoriation is if any at all. The Asian situtation could not unfold until 1st quarter if any because at that time we will see if Asia is going to cancel or slow down imports from our companies. Wall Street is supposed to be a discounting mechanism, but as we all know the analysts seem to change their outlook after the companies disclose their increases or decreases in revenues and earnings. Just some thoughts, Joan