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To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (3443)	11/23/1997 11:17:00 AM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 116814

Ron the ones who got us here have no formula to assure success or failure. The ones that state it is worse then we expected have no period in history to draw from to say it was anticipated. Greenspan speech pretty well states Who Knows! We here try.

To: Ron Wilkinson who wrote (3443)	11/25/1997 12:39:00 AM
From: Rob	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116814

Ron, they should be expecting worse... candidates for "which japanese institution will fail next": <<Monday November 24, 8:47 pm Eastern Time Nomura,former execs plead guilty to payoff charges TOKYO, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Nomura Securities Co Ltd (8604.T), its former president and two other former senior executives pleaded guilty on Tuesday to charges of giving 369 million yen to a corporate racketeer. A senior Nomura executive representing the brokerage told a Tokyo court that the company itself had paid money to the racketeer in 1995 in violation of Japan's commercial code and its securities transaction laws. Hideo Sakamaki, former Nomura president, Nobutaka Fujikura, a former managing director, and Shinpei Matsuki, another former senior executive, also pleaded guilty to the same charges. >>>> Also, Fuji bank must be suspect. Apparently it was a major creditor to Yamaichi Securites. The amount of bad loans on the books of Fuji undoubtedly increased by a large margin yesterday. With the sinking Nikkei, I sure there are lots of nervous bank executives in Tokyo. For those who think that the problems in Japan (which I think are going to further deteriorate) are not going to drastically affect North America, I think they should reconsider. Gov't will tell you that US trade with these regions is not significant enough to cause a lot of damage to US GDP growth. What they fail to mention is the US is becoming, day by day, increasing uncompetitive as a result of the asian currency crisis. Asian, with its tremendous industrial capacity, will soon begin muscling in on the non-asian portion of U.S trade. Not to mention that the domestic market will see a flood of cheaper imports. US corporate earnings WILL suffer. And we've seen not too long ago shares of companies hammered when they failed to EXCEED analysts forecasts. What's going to happen when earnings decrease and decrease significantly. To those who think that the North American will see an influx of foreign capital seeking a safe haven, I have to disagree. There has been a credit MELTDOWN. Asia will need an inflow of capital to extract itself from its mess, not an outflow. I am one of those that believes Japanese institutions will soon start dumping U.S. stocks and treasuries in order to increase liquidity. We may see large amounts of capital leaving the US (as asian, especially Japanese money has been one of the biggest reasons for the runup in North American markets) IMO Rob