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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (11943)	11/24/1997 12:11:00 AM
From: Kumar Nathan	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

Tito: Last week I was away and was in meeting with TSMCmanagers. As I posted several weeks ago, AMAT posted a very good quarter and posted very good backlog. Fortunately it is close to my estimation and TSMC also, as I posted earlier, placed substantial orders. I will post regularly starting next week. But I noticed that there is pessimism/nervousness in our thread. IMO it is totally unfounded. SEA crisis has nothing to do with AMAT business. In this business money is not the criteria. Technology is the driver seat. This business is highly price insensitive. If anybody dont understand that , then they are clearly naive. I am responding directly to that Sutro analysts in this post. Foundries in SEA are highly politically connected and to a great extent well subsidized. Therefore money is not the criteria and I see much brighter future for AMAT. AMAT started a new initiative called Green Initiative. Many foundries have shown keen interest on what AMAT were doing on this. IMO most of the customers are locked in with AMAT. I anticipate AMAT to rally starting this week. I havent had a chance to listen to conf. call and I am depending on Ricardo to publish the details in his web page. If anybody has detailed notes please post it. I will post regularly starting tommorrow. Regards Kumar

To: Tito L. Nisperos Jr. who wrote (11943)	12/13/1997 12:50:00 PM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

To Anybody Who Bought AMAT LEAPs due to my Recommendations:--- So AMAT is now at the 20s. We guessed wrong when we bought in the 30s but that's not a sin; 2 years from now at the 100s and looking back, we would wonder why we did not buy more... Although our LEAPs lost so much value, we are not as distressed as the ones that played Short-Term Options; that's why LEAPs are a must for Options beginners...What can we do now? Well, add some more, but...you may want first to read the links below---they suggest how to Roll-over LEAPs, thus improving ones position. Don't be in a hurry (the stock might jump back to the 30s if Alan Greenspan suddenly cuts interest rates next week), just Roll-over little by little---in a 20 Call portfolio, maybe 5 LEAPs at a time, making sure we get as much discount as possible, no hurry since our LEAPs still have so much life in them... As for our Model Portfolio of 5 Calls of VPJAH,...we can Roll-over also to the 30 or to LPJ but we won't do that. This Demo is not about trading techniques. We will just leave it there for a while and Roll-over about 5 months before expiration. What we will do is sell another 100 shares later in the low 20s and buy the LPJAF (Jan '00 30). We can sell the stock now, hold to the proceeds then buy cheaply in the low 20s...but we won't do that in this demo, no clever trading techniques, let's just do it like we were caught unaware of the slide down of the stock... Message 2950021 Message 2952867