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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10257)	11/23/1997 3:28:00 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill>>I think your logic is okay when it comes to anecdotal things that happen in the news... but when system problems occur, I know I tend to expect the worst... remember the S&L crisis (you aren't THAT old now are you, dear)? As a systems person I agree with you we have an Asia economic system problem and a South America economic problem to some degree. Having been a systems engineer for part of my career I have never seen a system that could not be fixed. Now, how are these subsystem problems in Asia and South America going to affect the world economic system and at what price. We must look at the interfaces within the Asia and South American economic systems as well as there interfaces to the global economy as well. I think the devil is in the details and we do not have the facts at this time. But we do know somethings. We do know what our country both imports and exports to the Asian and South American markets. I think we also know that US exports should decrease and maybe imports increase with the devaluation of the currencies. Now imports to the US will not increase from these subsystems if we have an economic slow down also. Also if Europe has an economic slowdown the problem will spread and could spiral. Since we are on an investing mission here, IMO the risk/reward ratio is not favorable for the investor who is long this market. Short term girations in the markets tell us nothing, but as things unfold we will be able to see what the longer term effects will be. There is no doubt in my mind US companies are going to feel a negative effect of this mess. Currently my long positions are hedged, I have a small amount of short positions, and the rest is in cash. That is how I am playing the game. Joan (older than you may think) Joan