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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe E. who wrote (2959)	11/23/1997 5:32:00 PM
From: JOHN W.	Respond to of 6136

You are correct, however the probability assessed for each event in his estimates have improved making his sales predictions that more likely. That is what I was trying to point out Thanks for the link, It is important to realize how many of those drugs will actually will get improved with the new standard of showing equal/superior efficacy. Also, out of the eight drugs approved this year, did any of the 8 pose any threat to nelf. No. Nelf was one of the 8, and I assume Fortovase was also included. Right now their are only 3 NIH rec PIs. 4 on the mkt if we include saq. The next one will be VX-478 which is very disappointing (70%????), and will not take mkt share IF IF it gets approved late next year. What is the next closest PI to come on the mkt? Furthermore, those that would say PIs have limited lifespans will also point out PIs that are being developed that could be on the mkt in 5 yrs? They are working both sides of the argument to satisfy the bearish argument. Their will be additional competition in the next 5-10 yrs, but this will be a non factor in the future of AGPH.