Obama Approval Rating Shows Serious Slip in New Poll
By JIM RUTENBERG and MARJORIE CONNELLY Published: March 12, 2012
Despite improving job growth and an extended Republican primary fight dividing his would-be opponents, President Obama is heading into the general election season on treacherous political ground, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.
Multimedia
 Document
New York Times/CBS Poll
Related How the Poll Was Conducted(March 13, 2012) Times Topic: Polls and Related Articles From The New York Times Pitched Appeals in 3-Way Race in Deep South(March 13, 2012) The Caucus: Santorum’s Delegate Math Looks Different From Romney’s(March 12, 2012) New York Times/CBS News Poll: Poll: Santorum and Romney Remain Tied(March 12, 2012)
The Election 2012 App A one-stop destination for the latest political news — from The Times and other top sources. Plus opinion, polls, campaign data and video.
Download for iPhone Download for Android
At a time of rising gas prices, heightened talk of war with Iran and setbacks in Afghanistan, Mr. Obama’s approval rating dropped substantially in recent weeks, the poll found, with 41 percent of respondents expressing approval of the job he is doing and 47 percent saying they disapprove — a dangerous position for any incumbent seeking re-election.
The poll provides a statistical reminder of how unsettled and unpredictable this year’s political landscape remains. Just one month ago, Mr. Obama reached a critical benchmark by winning approval from 50 percent of Times/CBS News poll respondents, his re-election prospects lifting along with confidence that the nation was finally emerging from the aftermath of the Great Recession.
Mr. Obama’s approval numbers measure his performance against expectations. But elections are choices between candidates, and on that score, he showed greater resilience in the poll.
In a hypothetical matchup against his most likely Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, Mr. Obama had a 47 percent to 44 percent advantage, a statistical dead heat given the poll’s margin of sampling error of 3 percentage points. Against Rick Santorum, the president drew 48 percent compared with 44 percent. In both cases, the difference between the candidates was slightly smaller than it was last month.
In the head-to-head matchups, Mr. Obama also maintained much of the advantage he had built in the last year among important constituencies, including women, although he lost some support among women over the past month, even as the debate raged over birth control insurance coverage.
Americans are still expressing confidence that the economy is staying the same or getting better, with those who believe that outnumbering those who view the economy as getting worse by nearly three to one. (Then again, 75 percent view the nation’s financial picture as “fairly bad” or “very bad.”)
Mr. Obama appears to be retaining much of his gains among important demographic groups, erasing inroads that Republicans made in 2010, especially among women. But his falling approval rating in the last month extended to his handling of both the economy and foreign policy, the poll found. And his weakening position cut across all major demographic groups, even among those with which he has kept an edge over his Republican challengers: women, independents, moderates, college graduates and younger voters.
Sharp as the drop in Mr. Obama’s approval rating was in the Times/CBS News poll, it was not in isolation. The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, released on Monday, also reported a drop in Mr. Obama’s overall approval rating, to 46 percent from 50 percent last month. The latest tracking poll from Gallup, also released Monday, showed Mr. Obama with an approval rating of 49 percent.
Yet, polls capture only a particular moment in time, and can be influenced by the way questions are asked or the mix of people who are surveyed. In The Times/CBS News poll, the margin of sampling error could mean the president’s approval rating is as high as 44 percent or as low as 38 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level.
Mr. Obama’s aides have expressed concern for weeks that rising gas and fuel prices and outside forces like the turmoil overseas or a spike in unemployment could harm his political standing.
The decline in Mr. Obama’s approval rating has occurred as more attention has been made to prices at the gas pump and as Republican presidential candidates have sometimes tries to connect the price increases to the Obama administration’s approach to Iran. They have also been highlighting concerns about Iran’s nuclear program.
Mr. Obama’s drop was particularly pronounced among low-income households that may be feeling the pinch of the higher gas prices — as well as increases in prices for groceries and some retail items — more than others.
Over all, 54 percent of poll respondents believed that a president can do a lot to control gas prices, as opposed to 36 percent who believe it is beyond a president’s control. Most women said the president could do a lot to control the price of gas, while men were more closely divided on the question.
“I think just being the president of the United States of America, you would have some type of control over gas pricing,” said Jamie Haber, 39, an independent voter of Orlando, who voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 but says he will not this year. “We’re out here doing everything we can to make a living and gas prices keep going up,” he said in a follow-up interview. |
