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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James Choi who wrote (22612)	11/23/1997 7:31:00 PM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

James, PE will no doubt contract, expand, contract, expand over time as a result of many variables. Your assertion that Dell cannot maintain it's momentum due to the fact PC's are a commodity is IMO incorrect. PC's are not a commodity. Period. No way, No how, not today, not even close. Tomorrow, someday, yes. Any product that's continually being redefined every six months is not a commodity. Any product that becomes obsolete every 2-3 years does not classify as a commodity. A toaster is a commodity. PC's 5 years from now will hardly resemble today's machines in terms of speed, power, capabilities and asthetics. Today, Dell is at a $13B annual run rate. In 5 years, it will be at $50B. You are wise not to doubt the future of Dell. It would also be wise not to go short unless you are a perfect market timer. Expect Dell to grow revenues and earnings by AT LEAST 35% year over year for the next five years. I guess technically, that classifies as a slowing of momentum by recent Dell standards. My arguments have never really focused on valuations but rather on the issues of future growth, opportunity, technological change, the "PC's are a commodity" myth and the "no barriers to entry" fallacy. The PC universe will expand to collosal proportions and todays leaders will continue to dominate and steal market share into the future. Dell is in this catagory. Are Intel's monopolistic days over? That's a different discussion and argument. The Intel thred micro analyzes that topic minute by minute, bit by bit and it would be a waste to discuss here. I will say that I study this very topic daily and all signs point to continued domination. Intel is the only reliable volume supplier. While AMD and Cyrix make fine and capable trailing edge processors, it's as much about business, strategy and war as it is about technology. Witness Apple, PowerPC, BetaMax etc. Whether or not Dell can maintain it's high PE is anybody's guess. Paul Levy has stated emphaticaly many times that it's impossible to accurately value these stocks and I tend to agree. One thing is certain in my mind however, Dell's stock will continue to go up more often than it will go down for the forseeable future. MEATHEAD