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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10265)	11/23/1997 8:27:00 PM
From: Judy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Hi, Bill Just logged on to see your current read of the market. Since I don't daytrade often, blow-by-blow market moves are academic interest to me. But it does not take a rocket scientist to know that until the certainty of the Asian situation is resolved, the market's trend will have a downward bias. The herd simply does not tolerate uncertainty, and uncertainty takes time to resolve. In the interim, one can trade the flux since market direction tends to hold for 4-5 days. ORCL, I like too. Not expecting a significant move for another month or two however. btw, could you do a Fib retracement on AMAT? Would like to compare notes. Regards.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (10265)	11/23/1997 9:23:00 PM
From: Elllk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill Re: <<Getting serious for the moment (and who wants to do that)...>> and <<what is your take on tomorrow's market?>> I try to maintain a sense of humor as one of the few resources we have against our own overweaning vanity in the event that we convince ourselves that we have mastered the tower of Babel. I do think we have to try but also laugh at ourselves a little as we do. I agreed with Norman Mailer's observation many decades ago that a genius who read every paper in the world might be able to figure out what was going on if his genius included being able to read between the lines. I have also done enough research in an area (healthcare) which is as "soft" as the vagaries of the market to know that data can be used to make a case for just about anything, depending.. Again, I do think we have to make earnest efforts to understand and predict (stock market and otherwise), and I do try to do it myself, and am sympathetic towards attempts of others to do so, but I do think it is both serious business and humorous at the same time. The case for that is probably made by the paradox that ultimately certainty is hell. Getting on to tomorrow. You do challenge me for a take on what has to be probably the worst day to try to predict in a long time, so I don't know that I will go along with that request. I don't think the market can be picked day to day but, of course, I try, though but don't like to do it publicly. Its tough enough to live with mistakes and lost money in privacy so I respect you guys who put it on the line. You, Iqbal, Zeev, and some others have had some great runs and it is fascinating to see. I do think that such runs are inevitably limited and are based on tapping in in some way on fads (which is not to say that sometimes it can't amount to a period of years as with Granville and Prechter but the danger with such success is coming down with "locked in syndrome"). Fads, also, are serious business and funny at the same time. For instance, some people have had organs removed purely because of fads in medicine (and I'm not talking just tonsils or appendixes). Of course, we are all here because of the possibility that we can make enough money to live the way we want to and this is serious stuff, at least for us. My humor doesn't intend to mimimize this. Wasn't I getting on to tomorrow somewhere back there? Well, someone once was asked what he thought of Churchill's history of the English speaking people (?) and said "If it isn't true, it should be." Tomorrow I say down, and if it isn't it should be. I also would like to make my prediciton officially one of the most qualified predictions ever. Last week was ws an unbelievable rally in our market (to me) and broke through several resistence points and whet the bulls horns for a run at new highs. After last week who could be cavalier about standing in the bulls path. And there is a wall of worry provided by SE Asia and South America, but one to climb or slam into. Tonight, if the data is accurate, S&P and Nasdaq futures are up and bonds are down. Korea is unhappy with the amount of the IMF loan. Yamaichi has gone under but the Tokyo market is closed tomorrow, so impact can be kept muted, possibly. In our market, there is another ton of IPOs hitting tomorrow but it is also time for the holiday rally. Generally, this holiday week is a low volume one and therefore could be pushed more easily in any direction. And god knows what news will hit, but it is clear that the accelerating bad news of the past week or so has had no effect on the bull, and the question, for me, is does this bull now run on pure adrenaline. So I say DOWN with absolutely no confidence, especially after last week. The theoretical range on Friday remained about the same as on Thursday. It had advanced everyday last week until Friday, so the rally could be rounding off or ready for a reversal. I do think that if the bull charges to new highs it will be a pyric and foolhardy run (akin, if you will, to Napoleonic or Hitlerian arrogance and excess in the Eastern campaigns, the arrogant bull may be overly incensed by to a couple of sticks from the picador and charge with heroic effort to a height where the air gets cold and the oxygen thins) and a price will be paid in the first half of December. And I think next year, the longer term price of feeling we are immune to what is going on in SE Asia and South America will be paid. But after that, another great run probably for several years to, as usual, another level of excess. A long answer to a short question---in response to feeling that my enjoyment of humor may have led to doubts about my ultimate seriousness. Here's hoping that whatever way it goes we find our way to playing the correct side of it. Larry