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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (29854)	3/13/2012 6:42:42 PM
From: llap	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 224205

IMO you were doing the right thing, GZ. zealllc.com once published a seasonal gold chart for this bull market since 1999 showing a bottom in PM mid-late March into a high around late May. So far the market follows the usual script. Obviously, this is a general tendency and no exact timing. According to this we should at least be close to a bottom. Sorry, I don't have the chart at hand right now, but you can probably google it. At some point, the commodity bull market will give way to a general economic boom phase. At 13 years, the commodity bull gets long in the tooth. IMO this means that real interest rates will rise and sink the PMs eventually... but not yet IMO. I expect one more final and dramatic spike up. We'll see. llap

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (29854)	3/13/2012 8:56:34 PM
From: FCom777	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 224205

I do - based on seasonality, sentiment, and liquidity factors. The seasonality is aptly described in the zeal post. The banksters feed off the gold bulls - its a great revenue center for them. All they have to do is start prices up - and like lemmings - the gold bulls climb on board only to get fleeced when the time is right. I'm reading recent weakness as a false start - gold bulls jumped on board quick when prices looked like they were poised to move higher - the set back takes their money and allows those in the know to establish larger positions. Also, when prices start higher next time around - gold bulls will be more likely to turn in their profitable positions waiting for the pullback - which isn't going to come until prices are chased higher. The big picture is the liquidity argument. Feds been pumping dollars ad nauseum for years now. It's an election year. They want equities higher. That's very apparent. Rising prices infer good times are here again. Gold and stocks have generally been trading higher for a while now - mostly because of the added liquidity and devalued dollar. Seems likely that higher equities infer higher precious metals. Plus the kicker for me is platinum has now gone to premium to gold. As discussed many times before, this strengthened spread correlates fairly well to overall PM strength. But, you're a lot better trader than me - you would probably do well to follow your instincts - and your system. You should get a buy signal in due time and be able to capture most of the move ... my bane is trying to call tops and bottoms. I'm learning a lot from you ...

To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (29854)	3/13/2012 9:11:50 PM
From: FCom777	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 224205

You might also be interested in this guy's views. He too is an accomplished trader. He likes to use the COT data. Say's the COT data is turning bullish - yet he's massively bearish. Go figure. I read his emotional bearishness despite his COT analyses as a good sentiment indicator. I like his COT analyses and hope to update my data - think I stopped tracking it a couple years ago when they changed formats. Like the idea of timing longer term tops/bottoms based on the commercial/large trader opposite position extremes. Seems to work well for him ... iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com